684
FXUS63 KGRR 301849
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
249 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2495
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET AND MILD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
- WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
- MUCH COOLER AND UNSETTLED THURSDAY AND BEYOND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2495
- QUIET AND MILD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL ONLY CONTINUE FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE REGION IS KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES A BIT COOL,
ALONG WITH A FLOW AROUND THE CANADIAN SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THE DRY
WEATHER IS THE RESULT OF THE AREA BEING DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER
RIDGE, AND CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVERHEAD.
THE ONLY CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE A SLOW AND
GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. WE ARE LOOKING AT HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 70S THROUGH MONDAY, THEN SOME 80S ARE MORE LIKELY BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT, SO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, AND
CLEARING SKIES AT NIGHT.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY
WE ARE LOOKING AT A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE OF A WIDESPREAD RAIN
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS STRONG WAVE WILL BE COMING IN FROM THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
ALASKA AND CANADA. IT WILL BE DISLODGED BY A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA, AND SEND IT DOWN TO BE
RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY THURSDAY.
THIS WAVE WILL INITIALLY NOT HAVE ANY GULF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. HOWEVER AS THE WAVE AND FRONT MOVE IN, IT WILL CONNECT WITH
ANOTHER LOW OVER THE SE U.S. AND IN AN INDIRECT WAY BRING GULF
MOISTURE UP. WE SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS
SYSTEM EXPAND OVER THE AREA AS A RESULT. THUNDER LOOKS POSSIBLE AT
THIS JUNCTURE WITH SFC BASED AND ELEVATED LI'S JUST A LITTLE BELOW
0C. THE LIMITED INSTABILITY, NIGHT TIME TIMING ARE DEFINITELY
FACTORS AGAINST ANY MEANINGFUL ORGANIZATION FOR NOW.
- MUCH COOLER AND UNSETTLED THURSDAY AND BEYOND
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT IS GOING TO BE MUCH COOLER,
WITH PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
THE STRONG WAVE COMING DOWN FROM NW CANADA WILL BE COMBINING WITH
THE RESIDUAL UPPER LOW OVER THE SE U.S. TO FORM A MUCH LARGER UPPER
LOW THAT WILL SIT IN PLACE FOR A FEW DAYS.
WE WILL SEE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW, AND
DROP RIGHT THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS MEANS WE WILL HAVE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS LUCKY
TO BE IN THE 60S. IT WILL NOT BE A WIDESPREAD OR ALL DAY RAIN. IT
WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AT TIMES, WITH PLENTY OF DRY
PERIODS ALSO.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2495
VFR WILL DOMINATE FOR MOST TAF SITES OVER THE TAF PERIOD. THE SOLE
EXCEPTION WILL BE JXN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS
DOMINATING THE PATTERN, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT JXN COULD ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHALLOW FOG OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE
IT SHOULDN'T BE AS EXTENSIVE, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL BETWEEN
06Z TO 12Z OF REDUCING VSBYS. HAVE PUT IN A PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS
FROM 09Z TO 11Z ACCORDINGLY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2495
RELATIVELY CALM CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WATER AND AIR TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER COOL FOR
SWIMMING. WARMEST LAKE TEMPS REMAIN AROUND HOLLAND STATE PARK.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NJJ
AVIATION...CERU
MARINE...CERU
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