042
FXUS63 KGRR 101740
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
140 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NEXT WEEK IS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
- DRYING OUT WITH MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
- ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NEXT WEEK IS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED BACK TO OUR NW ACROSS WI AND UPPER MICHIGAN. A BIT
OF RAIN STILL EXISTS WITH THE FRONT AT THIS HOUR.
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS FRONT
DRYING OUT BEFORE IT GRADUALLY PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY. THERE
IS NO GOOD MOISTURE INFLOW INTO THIS SYSTEM AS IT IS NOW. COMBINE
THIS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENING/DAMPENING OUT WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE TO THE WEST TAKING CONTROL, WE EXPECT A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE ONLY NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE WINDS FROM THE SW BECOMING MORE
FROM THE NNE AS IT PASSES THROUGH.
WE WILL SEE ADDITIONAL DRY DAYS THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER RIDGE TAKING CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF
SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP US DRY. AT THE SAME TIME WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM UP WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS.
THE ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST WILL ARRIVE
EARLIER ON SATURDAY, AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN THIS EVENT
HAS BEEN TRENDING DOWN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH JUST A
GLANCING BLOW COMING AS WE GET CLIPPED BY THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION. IN ADDITION, THERE IS NO DIRECT FLOW COMING UP
FRO THE GULF.
- DRYING OUT WITH MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK
THE WAVE DIVING SE OUT OF CANADA SATURDAY WILL BE FULLY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. THIS PROGRESSION WILL ONCE
AGAIN ALLOW LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY, AND HOLDING THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED FLOW OF
THE LOW OVER THE NE AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS, COMBINED WITH A STRONG
RIDGE INBETWEEN, INDICATES THAT THE PATTERN MAY BECOME ALMOST AN
OMEGA BLOCK.
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS LIKELY TO SLOW UP THE PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. IT LOOKS LIKE MICHIGAN WILL END UP UNDER THE
WARM AND DRY PORTION OF THIS OMEGA BLOCK. THIS IS GOOD FOR PEOPLE
LOOKING TO DO EARLY OUTDOOR FALL EVENTS. WHAT IS NOT GOOD FOR THIS
IS THE LACK OF GOOD RECENT RAIN, AND THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS
OVER THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
AVIATION CONCERNS REMAIN NIL OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MI, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS INTO THURSDAY. PATCHY UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING AS WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY PUSHES
EAST OF THE REGION. A NEARLY NON-EXISTENT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, WITH PERHAPS A
SMALL TENDENCY TO TURN NE BY THURSDAY - IN RESPONSE TO HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENING EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY NE OF THE GREAT LAKES.
CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVATIONS THE PAST TWO NIGHTS, FORECAST WILL
INCLUDE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT AT JXN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
WE ARE LOOKING AT QUITE A GOOD STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR LATE SEASON
RECREATION BOATERS AND SWIMMERS OVER MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK. THE
RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT WIND/WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY FAIRLY TAME THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME. THE ONLY
PERIOD WHERE WE MAY HAVE SOME WINDS/WAVES THAT WOULD NECESSITATE A
SCA AND BEACH HAZARDS WOULD BE CENTERED AROUND SATURDAY. THIS IS
WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH A BIT OF A GRADIENT MOVES THROUGH.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NJJ
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...NJJ
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