918
FXUS63 KGRR 140608
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
208 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY UNTIL LATE WEEK
- WEEKEND SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
- MOSTLY DRY UNTIL LATE WEEK
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS COMING THROUGH MOSTLY DRY TODAY, BUT
SOME MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST INTO TUE MORNING.
MAY HAVE FOG DEVELOP TUE MORNING AGAIN ESPECIALLY AROUND
LANSING/JACKSON WHERE FEWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED, AND PROJECTED LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW THIS AFTERNOON'S
MINIMUM DEW POINTS.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS, TUE NIGHT, IS TRENDING UP IN
PROBABILITY TO ABOUT 30-50 PERCENT WITH THE SUPPORT OF MORE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND NOW THE HREF MODELS. HOWEVER, THIS IS LIKELY
TO BE AN INCONSEQUENTIAL RAIN EVENT. WORTH NOTING THIS TIME THAT
THE POPS EXPRESS THE CHANCE OF RECEIVING AT LEAST 0.01 INCH OF
PRECIP. NARROW SWATHS OF OVER 0.10 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE BUT
DO NOT APPEAR TO BE THE MOST COMMON OUTCOME FOR ANY PARTICULAR
LOCATION. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRODUCED AMID MIDLEVEL LIFT
AND MOISTURE (ABOVE 700 MB) CROSSING THE RIDGE AND SPREADING OVER
RELATIVELY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR.
THERE WILL BE A MIDWEEK COOLDOWN UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING SURFACE HIGH. WED IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S, WHICH IS PRETTY CLOSE TO MID
OCTOBER NORMALS. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY WED NIGHT, SETTING UP A FROST/FREEZE SCENARIO. MIMICKING
THE FROST/FREEZE OF LAST WEEK, A FREEZE IS LIKELY IN THE INTERIOR
HIGHLANDS OF CENTRAL MICHIGAN. WIDESPREAD FROST IS LIKELY AROUND
JACKSON, WHILE PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. PARTS
OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN MAY ESCAPE FROST AGAIN.
- WEEKEND SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN TRANSLATES EASTWARD LATER IN THE WEEK,
BRINGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CLOSER TO MICHIGAN WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CROSS MICHIGAN AROUND FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF WARM ADVECTION RAIN
SHOWERS, BUT AMOUNTS ARE NOT FAVORED TO BE VERY SIGNIFICANT.
BETTER CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE RAIN, AND PERHAPS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS AND BLUSTERY WINDS, ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND, AS A
DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MIDCONTINENT LOW
MAY DEVELOP A RELATIVELY STRONG OHIO VALLEY / GREAT LAKES SURFACE
CYCLONE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEAR HOUGHTON LAKE (HTL) TO MUSKEGON
(MKG) AT 06Z. A BAND OF STRATOCUMULUS IS LOCATED NEAR AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH CLOUD BASES IN THE 3500-6000FT RANGE FOR THE
MOST PART. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST TODAY
MOVING THROUGH ALL OF THE TAF SITES BY 18Z. THE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS WILL ALSO PUSH SOUTH WITH THE FRONT.
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IN THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE THREAT OF
STRATUS AND FOG THIS MORNING BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z OR SO. STRATUS
AND DENSE FOG IS FORMING ALONG THE LAKESHORE (LDM, MBL) AT 06Z AS
THE AIR IS QUICKLY COOLED BEHIND THE FRONT COINCIDENT WITH A ZONE
OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST (TEW, JXN)
ARE ALSO FORMING FOG IN AN ZONE OF SCATTERED CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
STRATOCU. WE FEEL THESE TWO AREAS WILL BE MOST PRONE TO FOG AND
STRATUS THIS MORNING, NAMELY MKG TOWARDS THE LAKESHORE AND LAN/JXN
INLAND. CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS DEVELOPS IS SOMEWHAT LOW. BOTTOM
LINE IS THAT IFR AND BELOW IS POSSIBLE AT THOSE THREE LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY.
VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTH TODAY AT 4-8 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING THOUGH GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT IT WILL BE LESS LIKELY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
POTENTIALLY REACHING 20 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 20Z TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO MORE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL BE OFFSHORE FLOW. SO WILL
HOLD OFF FOR NOW BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON FOR THE POINTS.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CAS
AVIATION...DUKE
MARINE...CERU
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