288
FXUS63 KGRR 060441
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1141 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
- COLDER, RAIN/SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025
- RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
A COLD FRONT JUST PASSED THROUGH THE CWA AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND IT ARE PUSHING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WE SHOULD CLEAR OUT
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THE NEXT LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STRAITS THURSDAY NIGHT AND PUSH
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A BIT MORE DYNAMICS
WITH IT...STRONG SHORT WAVE, DEEPER UPPER TROUGH. QPF HASN'T
CHANGED MUCH SINCE YESTERDAY: STILL EXPECTING A QUARTER TO A THIRD
INCH ACROSS THE CWA. THAT COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING DOWN COLDER
AIR THAT WILL SET US UP FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
- COLDER, RAIN/SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
THE TRACK OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT LOW IS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
WHICH PLACES THE CWA ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. AT THE SAME
TIME THE LOW MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH, A TRAILING SHORT WAVE WILL
HELP TO CARVE OUT A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL POUR DOWN IN IT'S WAKE.
H8 TEMPS PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW ARE PROGD TO BE IN THE
-2 TO -4C RANGE, WHICH MEANS THERE'S LIKELY TO BE LIGHT SNOW WITH
IT... PERHAPS MIXED WITH SOME RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH
WE'LL SEE SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. PROBABILITY PROGS INDICATE A
40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE ENTIRE CWA SEEING A HALF INCH AND A
35 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE AT SEEING AN INCH. AT 2 INCHES,
PROBABILITIES DROP TO ROUGHLY 15 TO 25 PERCENT.
WE'LL SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS H8 TEMPS
FALL TO -10C, CREATING ABUNDANT OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF US-131.
HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S AND LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS BLO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL GO SOUTH AND INCREASE TO
NEAR 10 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. LLWS IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING AS
SOUTH WINDS INCREASE. SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20 KNOTS AT MKG
AND COULD GUST OVER 30 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 238 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025
OBSERVATIONS COMBINED WITH WEB CAMS ALONG THE LAKE INDICATE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ARE ONGOING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 13Z THURSDAY.
STRONG SOUTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE
THURSDAY AND WE'VE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THAT
POTENTIAL. WIND CROSS SECTIONS ON BUFKIT SHOW THE MIXING LAYER
TAPPING INTO 40 KNOTS. WHILE WE MIGHT NOT REALIZE ALL OF THAT,
THE POTENTIAL IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
LMZ844>849.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...OSTUNO
MARINE...04
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