105
FXUS63 KGRR 061934
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
234 PM EST THU NOV 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
- RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT, ACCUMS POSSIBLE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 PM EST THU NOV 6 2025
- RAIN TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL MOVE
EAST TONIGHT. A STRONG 50 KT LLJ IS PROGD TO DEVELOP AND BRING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AS EVIDENCED BY STRONG H8-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
VECTORS. THE RESULT WILL BE RAIN DEVELOPING AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. QPF HAS TRENDED UPWARD DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF MODEL
RUNS AND WE'RE NOW EXPECTING A THIRD TO HALF INCH OF RAIN BEFORE
IT ENDS FRIDAY MORNING; FRIDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS GENERALLY DRY. THE
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WON'T REALLY BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE
REGION UNTIL LATE FRIDAY. THUS, HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE MID 50S.
- RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT, ACCUMS POSSIBLE
OUR FIRST TASTE OF WINTER WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHERN INDIANA BY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL SPREAD SYNOPTIC
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE AUGMENTED
BY A STRONG TRAILING SHORT WAVE THAT WILL HELP TO CARVE OUT THE
DEEP UPPER TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INITIALLY THE
P-TYPE WILL BE RAIN, BUT QUICKLY TRANSITION TO WET SNOW AROUND
MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOW THIS TO BE A FAIRLY QUICK-HITTING SYSTEM IN
WHICH THE DURATION OF SNOWFALL MAY ONLY BE 4-6 HOURS. GIVEN THE
INITIAL P-TYPE OF RAIN, SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HELD DOWN
SOMEWHAT AS WELL AS FROM THE WARM GROUND.
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SNOW TOTALS, BUT GENERALLY
SHOW 1-2 INCHES NORTH OF I-96 AND 1-3/2-4 INCHES SOUTH OF I-96.
THAT'S PROBABLY A GOOD STARTING POINT.
IMPACT WISE...THERE'RE ARE STILL A LOT OF LEAVES ON THE TREES AND
WET SNOW MAY BRING DOWN SOME BRANCHES AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. THE
WARM GROUND MAY HELP TO MITIGATE TRAVEL ISSUES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THAT COULD CHANGE BY SUNDAY/MONDAY, THOUGH, AS COLDER AIR FLOWS
INTO THE CWA. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 30S.
WHILE WE EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SHOW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME, COLD
AIR SUNDAY MORNING AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING (LOWS IN THE
TEENS) MAY MAKE FOR SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. THE GROUND WILL STILL
BE WARM. THEN ADD A LITTLE SNOW WHICH WILL MELT AND THEN QUICKLY
REFREEZE IN THE COLD AIR AND WE COULD SEE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM EST THU NOV 6 2025
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH BASES LOWERING
AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. A PERIOD OF LLWS WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS STRONG WINDS, AS HIGH AS 50 KTS AT 2KFT. A
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA OVERNIGHT WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS
AS CIGS FALL BELOW 2KFT. A SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
ALSO SUPPORT MVFR VISBYS AS SHOWERS CROSS THE TERMINALS. LOW
(10%) CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS AT THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. ENOUGH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY NEAR AZO, BTL, AND JXN TONIGHT THAT A
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR
TAF INCLUSION. WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT TO 12-20 KNOTS GUSTING TO 30
KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH BECOMING WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 234 PM EST THU NOV 6 2025
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AND WINDS WILL
INCREASE AFTER 00Z TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. WIND
PROFILES POINT TOWARD MIXING INTO THE 40 KT RANGE TONIGHT. THUS,
THE GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MID FRIDAY MORNING.
WE'LL LIKELY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AFTER THAT.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
LMZ844>849.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...04
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