467
FXUS63 KGRR 080501
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1201 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
- RAIN TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
WINDS BECOMING CALMER INTO SATURDAY.
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH THE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL BRING INITIALLY RAIN
TO THE AREA TRANSITIONING TO SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE AXIS OF
HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. AT THIS TIME THIS
AREA OF HIGHER SNOWFALL STRETCHES AROUND A KALAMAZOO TO LANSING
LINE WITH PROBABILITIES OF 2 INCHES OR MORE IN THE 30 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE TRACK COULD MOVE
THIS BAND OF SNOW FURTHER NORTH OR SOUTH. WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES
WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS, HOWEVER ELEVATED SURFACES LIKE BRIDGES
WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ACCUMULATIONS IF RATES ARE HIGH
ENOUGH.
MEANWHILE, THERE WILL ALSO BE A LAKE EFFECT BAND THAT DEVELOPS
ALONG AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE FEEDING OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS CLOUD CLIP MASON AND
OCEANA COUNTIES BRINGING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY.
PROBABILITIES OF 2 INCHES OR MORE ARE IN THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT
RANGE ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THESE COUNTIES.
WITH THE WET NATURE OF THE SNOW PAIRED WITH LEAVES ON TREES WE
COULD SEE SOME POWER OUTAGES DUE TO WEIGHED DOWN BRANCHES.
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AS WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND THE LOW, LAKE SURFACE AND
850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 22 C. THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR INLAND
THE BAND WILL MOVE. PROBABILITIES OF AN ADDITIONAL 4 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE SHORELINE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING ARE
IN THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 20S MONDAY MORNING WITH ACCUMULATIONS MORE LIKELY TO
STICK AND ICY SPOTS TO DEVELOP. A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE LAKE EFFECT
BAND WILL IMPACT TOTALS SO KEEP UP WITH THE FORECAST AS WE GET
CLOSER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1201 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PATCHY MVFR FROM GRR TO LAN THROUGH ABOUT 09Z.
NORTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT GOING NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY
MORNING.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...OSTUNO
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