037
FXUS63 KGRR 101756
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1256 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT
- SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
- MAINLY DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
- CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST MON NOV 10 2025
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT
HEADLINE DECISIONS ALONG THE LAKESHORE WAS THE FOCUS OF THE
FORECAST TONIGHT...WHICH IS STATING THE OBVIOUS. EARLY SEASON LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EVENTS ARE ALWAYS A BIT DIFFICULT GIVEN A WARM
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE LAKE AND WARM GROUND. BOTH OF WHICH CAN
CUT BACK ON TOTALS AND LESSEN IMPACTS ON ROADS. THIS AIRMASS IS
COLD HOWEVER WITH AIR TEMPS IN THE TEENS IN PORTIONS OF OUR
NORTHERN CWA. HEADLINE DECISIONS HAVE BEEN MADE HOWEVER WITH OUR
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN HEAVIER SNOWS BEING ACROSS MASON AND OCEANA
COUNTIES. THESE 2 COUNTIES WILL SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF SNOW AND
WILL HAVE BETTER CONNECTIONS TO THE LONG FETCH AND SOME PRE-
CONDITIONING OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. STARTED THE HEADLINE AT 7AM UP
IN MASON AND OCEANA. SOUTH OF THERE WE HAVE GONE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES GIVEN SHORTER PERIODS OF SNOW AND NOT AS MUCH OF A LAKE
SUPERIOR CONNECTION, STARTING AT 10AM IN MUSKEGON AND OCEANA AND
1PM IN ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN. WE FEEL 4 TO 9 INCH AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA WITH 2 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN
HEFTY TOTALS EARLY THIS MORNING DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH
OVER 9 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED AT VALPARAISO IN NORTHWEST INDIANA
PER A CHICAGO LSR.
ALL THE PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR SOME HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WITH DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH 700MB, STRONG INSTABILITY WITH DELTA TS
IN THE LOWER 20S C AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS EVENT
AT ITS CORE IS THE INLAND PUSH OF THE BAND THAT IS OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN NOW. AGAIN, THE BAND IS SITUATED OVER OUR TWO NORTHERN
LAKESHORE COUNTIES THE LONGEST AND HENCE THE WARNING THERE. SOME
OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS THE BAND IS MOVING INLAND ACROSS WESTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITY WILL BE THE MAIN
IMPACTS. THE LAKESHORE IS STILL HANGING ON TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF
LEAVES WHICH IS USUALLY THE CASE IN EARLY NOVEMBER AND THEREFORE
POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE WEIGHT OF THE SNOW ON THE
LEAF SURFACES. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OVERNIGHT AS THE BAND MOVES
INLAND.
- SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR HANGS ON. WE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN OR SNOW. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
QPF THOUGH, ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
- MAINLY DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WE LOOK TO BE MAINLY DRY IN THE MID TO LAKE WORK WEEK TIME FRAME
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL WARM FROM THE
30S TODAY AND TOMORROW, INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND PUSH TO
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND
A GOOD SIGNAL FOR RAIN EXISTS IN THE ENSEMBLE DATA FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF OVER THE WEEK AS A LOW SWEEPS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. RAIN LOOKS TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY WITH SUNDAY HAVING THE BEST
CHANCES WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025
IFR TO LIFR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN PROXIMITY OF LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. SOME WAVERING OF THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND'S LOCATION WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING, PUTTING GRR AND AZO AT RISK OF TEMPORARY MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITY. LATE TONIGHT, PREVAILING WINDS BECOMING MORE FROM THE
WEST WILL NUDGE SNOW SHOWERS FARTHER EAST OF GRR AND AZO. SNOW
INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT WILL BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND, BUT MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE A FAIR BET.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ037-043.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ050-056.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ064-071.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
DISCUSSION...DUKE
AVIATION...CAS
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