299
FXUS63 KGRR 102349
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
649 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT ENDS TONIGHT
- RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
- MAINLY DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025
- MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT ENDS TONIGHT
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE LAKE EFFECT BAND MOVING
ONSHORE. BURSTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ARE EXPECTED WITH
POCKETS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. VISIBILITIES HAVE
DROPPED TO A 1/2 MILE IN THE MAIN BAND. THE LOW VISIBILITIES AND
QUICK ACCUMULATIONS UNDER THE BAND WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. LEAFY TREES MAY ALSO BE WEIGHED DOWN BY THE SNOW AND
CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KICK IN THIS EVENING PUSHING THE BAND MORE
ONSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND FREEZING ALONG
THE LAKESHORE, WITH THE WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES THIS WILL RESULT
IN MELTING OF SNOW. HOWEVER DURING BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW EXPECT
SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADS. LATER TONIGHT 850MB TEMPERATURES
WARM AND WE LOSE OUR DEEP MOISTURE ENDING THE LAKE EFFECT WITH THE
REMNANTS BEING ADVECTED EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT.
MOST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF US-131 WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING A TOTAL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS (4 TO 8)
IN WESTERN MASON AND OCEANA COUNTIES. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE (30 TO 50 PERCENT) IN VAN BUREN, ALLEGAN, AND
MUSKEGON COUNTIES. AMOUNTS OF A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE EASTERN LAKESHORE
COUNTIES.
- RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE AND 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES IN
WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON THE
COOLER SIDE RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW WITH SOME RAIN
MIXING IN. A TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WE LOSE CLOUD ICE AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE
FOCUSES TO THE NORTH WITHIN THE TROUGH. SINCE WE ARE MOVING OUT OF
A COLD PERIOD WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN.
TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY WITH THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT
MIXING DOWN. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH AREAS ALONG THE LAKESHORE HITTING 40 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
- MAINLY DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WARM EACH DAY FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S TO THE 50S.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MAKING AN APPEARANCE FOR THE WEEKEND
BRINGING RAIN CHANCES (20 TO 30 PERCENT) AS EARLY AS SATURDAY,
BUT BETTER CHANCES (40 TO 60 PERCENT) HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 649 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH IFR VISIBILITY CONTINUE NEAR THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE, INCLUDING AT MKG, INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT. GRADUALLY TONIGHT, PREVAILING WINDS MORE FROM THE WEST
WILL CARRY SNOW SHOWERS FARTHER EAST, PUTTING GRR, AZO, BTL, AND
LAN AT RISK OF TEMPORARY MVFR TO IFR SNOW SHOWERS. A LESS
FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERE FOR LAKE EFFECT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL
ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE, SO SHOWER INTENSITY WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SCATTER.
A SWITCH TO A WARMING PATTERN WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR DURING THE DAY TUE. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF THICKENING
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WITH LIGHT SNOW AROUND MID-DAY, MOSTLY VFR BUT A
CHANCE FOR TEMPORARY MVFR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH THE NORTHWEST WINDS
TO 30 KNOTS AND HIGH WAVES 6 TO 10 FEET. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY WITH GALES EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON CONTINUING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WAVES OF 7 TO 11 FEET ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THEN TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE (40
TO 50 PERCENT) FOR GALES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ037-043.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ050-056-
064-071.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...CAS
MARINE...RAH
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