007
FXUS63 KGRR 121050
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
550 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING, THEN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY
- SATURDAY RAIN
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
- A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING, THEN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS LOWER MI
EARLY THIS MORNING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SURFACE LOW NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE LOW IS PUSHING A WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION BUT THERE ISN'T MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND IT. 00Z SOUNDINGS
SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW 750 MB WHICH EXPLAINS WHY RADAR
SHOWS A PAUCITY OF ECHOS OVER THE CWA. ONCE THE SHORT WAVE PASSES
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WE'LL TAP INTO THE DRIER AIR OVER
WISCONSIN CURRENTLY SEE ON IR IMAGERY.
TODAY WILL BE ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY: HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S, BUT STILL 5 OR SO DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS RESULTING IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND SUNSHINE.
- SATURDAY RAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOK WET. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
PROGD TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY 00Z SUNDAY. MOST OF THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN DURING THIS TIME. SO IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE A BIG SOAKER, BUT
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL INCREASE TO 50-60 PERCENT SATURDAY
EVENING.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL
BE IN THE 60S SATURDAY BUT ONLY IN THE 40S SUNDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. IT'S ALSO POSSIBLE THAT SOME WET SNOW MAKE MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN CWA SATURDAY EVENING, BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 544 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
IR LOOP SHOWS CLEARING BEGINNING TO OCCUR OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. CIGS
OVER MAINLY NORTH OF I96 ARE MVFR AND VFR SOUTH OF THERE. MKG AND
GRR HAVE BOUNCED BETWEEN THE TWO CATEGORIES DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. WE SHOULD SEE THE CLOUD DECK SCATTER OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AS RIDGING NOSES INTO THE STATE.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...04
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