809
FXUS63 KGRR 121930
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
230 PM EST WED NOV 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET AND MILD THROUGH FRIDAY
- ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
- POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MID WEEK NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST WED NOV 12 2025
- QUIET AND MILD THROUGH FRIDAY
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS CLOUDS QUICKLY MOVING
OUT/DISSIPATING OVER THE AREA. THIS IS THE RESULT OF DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH EARLIER TODAY. THIS IS A PROMISING TREND FOR VIEWING THE
POTENTIAL AURORA EVENT TONIGHT.
TONIGHT IS JUST THE FIRST PERIOD OF A COUPLE OF DAYS OF MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE STRONG CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND
RESULTING SFC RIDGING THAT WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE STATE THROUGH
FRIDAY. WE WILL SEE A NOTICEABLE WARMUP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PUSHES IN, AND TAPS WARMER AIR OVER THE PLAINS
STATES.
- ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE OUT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT ORGANIZES AND
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL STILL BE A BIT LACKING AT
THAT POINT, AND THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS.
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A WARM AND DRY DAY EARLIER, THEN TRANSITIONING
TO COOLER AND SHOWERY LATER IN THE DAY. THIS WILL COME IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE OF TRENDS WITH THESE
SHOWERS. THE FIRST IS LESS QPF AS THE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF
DOES NOT LOOK AS PRONOUNCED. THE SECOND TREND HAS BEEN FOR A LOWER
CHANCE OF THUNDER, WHICH MAKES SINCE GIVEN LESS MOISTURE COMING IN.
WE WILL SEE SUNDAY DRY OUT WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND ANOTHER
STRONG SFC RIDGE BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
IN FOR SUNDAY AS HIGHS WILL BE ONLY IN THE 40S, AFTER POTENTIALLY
SOME 60S ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ON MONDAY.
- POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MID WEEK NEXT WEEK
THE LONG WAVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO UNDERGO A CHANGE NEXT WEEK TO
A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WEST, AND A DEVELOPING DEEP SW FLOW OVER OUR
REGION TAKING SHAPE THROUGH THE WEEK.
AS THE LARGE UPPER LOW OUT WEST TAKES SHAPE, AN INITIAL LOW OVER THE
DESERT SW GETS EJECTED BY THE ENERGY COMING IN OFF OF THE PACIFIC,
AND APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD
TAP SOME GULF MOISTURE AND BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM IS KEPT FROM MOVING
TOO FAR NORTH BY THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA.
THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT, GIVING THE AREA A BREAK.
THIS IS SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS THE LARGE WESTERN TROUGH TAKES SHAPE
AND THE DEEP SW FLOW DEVELOPS. WE COULD SEE THE FIRST WAVE DEVELOP
AND APPROACH AS EARLY AS LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN IS USUALLY A
WET AND MILD ONE FOR OUR AREA. WE COULD SEE MULTIPLE WAVES AND RAIN
CHANCES JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 PM EST WED NOV 12 2025
IT'S VFR WITH FEW CLOUDS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN, AND SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS WITH BASES BETWEEN 2,500 AND 3,500 TO THE EAST OF
THERE. FAIR TO GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CLOUDS CONTINUING TO SCATTER OUT
AND GOING CLEAR THIS EVENING (OCCURRING LATER IN CENTRAL
MICHIGAN, NORTH OF LAN). GUSTY WINDS ONGOING SHOULD RELAX IN
AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH NIGHTFALL (23 Z), SETTING UP 25
TO 30 KNOTS OF LLWS BETWEEN 2,000 FEET AND GROUND FOR A FEW HOURS.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
DISCUSSION...NJJ
AVIATION...CAS
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