874
FXUS63 KGRR 012014
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
314 PM EST MON DEC 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW CONTINUES
- LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT /MAINLY SOUTH/
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES REST OF WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST MON DEC 1 2025
- LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW CONTINUES
LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON FROM
GRAND HAVEN NORTH TO NEAR MUSKEGON. THIS SNOW EVENT HAS BEEN
REASONABLY WELL HANDLED /AT LEAST THUS FAR/ BY HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS. IT IS BEING DRIVEN BY A PERSIST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT ZONE,
COUPLED WITH RESPECTABLE OVER-WATER INSTABILITY /FEATURING WATER
TEMPS NEAR +9C AND 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -10C/. WSW-ENE ORIENTED
SNOW BAND IS DRIFTING NORTHEAST AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOME
S-SW. SNOW WILL LIKELY INCREASE FURTHER IN THE COMING HOURS AS
MID-UPPER MOISTURE STREAMS IN OVERHEAD. THOUGH MOST OF THE
SYNOPTIC SNOW FROM THIS ENERGY ALOFT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF MKG AND
VICINITY, THE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOULD INCREASE DUE TO SEEDER-
FEEDER PROCESSES.
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE - INCLUDING HREF/HRRR/NAM - SUGGEST
CONVERGENT ZONE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT...LIKELY EXITING
OTTAWA COUNTY BY EARLY EVENING AND THEN IMPACTING OCEANA/MUSKEGON
AND EVENTUALLY MASON COUNTIES /THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS DWINDLING THAT
MASON COUNTY WILL RECEIVE BIG IMPACTS/. MADE A LATE DECISION TO PUT
OTTAWA COUNTY BACK INTO THE WINTER STORM WARNING, GIVEN ONGOING
HEAVY SNOW IN GRAND HAVEN AND HOW SLOW THE SNOW HAS BEEN TO DRIFT
NORTH. WITH FOCUSED LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE,
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS 70-80% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 8 INCHES NEAR THE
COAST /PARTICULARLY MUSKEGON AND OCEANA COUNTIES/. TYPICAL OF LAKE
INDUCED SNOW, SPATIAL VARIABILITY WILL BE GREAT AND IF BAND
BECOMES STATIONARY, LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS COULD *GREATLY* EXCEED 8
INCHES.
- LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT /MAINLY SOUTH/
MID LEVEL IMPULSE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL RACE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC STATES BY EARLY
TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL WILL SPREAD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, AND IMPACT MUCH
OF THE GRR FORECAST AREA. LIMITED FORCING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH
MORE THAN 1-2 INCHES... MAINLY SOUTH /AND AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN/.
THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL END BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES REST OF WEEK
AS WINDS TURN NW ON TUESDAY BEHIND TONIGHT'S SYSTEM, LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKE SHORE SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AND PUSH
INLAND. LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL FEATURE
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEMS MOVING RAPIDLY EASTSOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA
AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THESE FEATURES MAY PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SNOW AND/OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW, AS WELL AS
REINFORCING PUSHES OF COLDER AIR. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL PASS ABOUT
WEDNESDAY, AND BRING /SHARPLY COLDER AIR/ FOR THURSDAY, WHEN
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 20F -- EASILY SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
ABOUT SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S, SOME 10-15F BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EST MON DEC 1 2025
NOTABLE CHANGES TO FORECAST: ADDED TEMPO LIFR AT MKG FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS EVENING WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A HEAVY SNOW BAND
SHIFTING ACROSS THE TERMINAL.
WORST CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE AT MKG WHERE
RADAR SHOWS A HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IS DEVELOPING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL. IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH THIS BAND AS IT PERSISTS.
OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AFTER 00Z AS WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW SPREADS OVER THE TERMINALS LEADING TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT
THE TERMINALS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LOOK FOR PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS AOB 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
MIZ037-043-050-056.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ038-044.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...THOMAS
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