020
FXUS63 KGRR 022017
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
317 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CHANCE (<20%) FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT
- ADDITIONAL LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WEDNESDAY /HEAVY SNOW NOT EXPECTED/
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
- SMALL CHANCE (<20%) FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MIGRATE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING, AS
LINGERING SNOW FLURRIES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN DIMINISH. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT ON BACKSIDE OF RIDGE IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT WEST MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.
RETREATING COLD AIR, SOUTHWEST WINDS, AND SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH INCREASING MIXING RATIOS WITH HEIGHT /PER HRRR
SOUNDINGS/ SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT
NORTHWEST OF AZO-GRR-MTP LINE -- PERHAPS EXTENDING THROUGH
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. OVERALL LOW LIKELIHOOD, BUT WORTH WATCHING
CLOSELY, GIVEN HIGH IMPACT ON TRAVEL.
- ADDITIONAL LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WEDNESDAY /HEAVY SNOW NOT EXPECTED/
500 MB SHORT WAVE ENERGY RACES ESE ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO TOWARD
QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY, AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SWINGS
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE FURTHER AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT, BUT SYNOPTIC MOISTURE/LIFT NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. MODELS
SUGGEST MODEST LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY WESTERN
AREAS, WITH AN INCH OR TWO ANTICIPATED. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST BY
LATE IN THE DAY BEHIND FRONT, AND THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR TO
SPILL INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY -- ALONG WITH
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE USUAL LOCALES. VERY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WEATHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
OVER NORTH AMERICA. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND UPPER
TROUGH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM CANADA, BRINGING
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WHILE HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE
COLDEST WEATHER OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. THOUGH HEAVY SNOW APPEARS
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME, EXPECT SHORT WAVES TO PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME
SNOW AND/OR LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES ROUGHLY FRIDAY, SATURDAY,
AND AGAIN TOWARD SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME.
HIGHS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S /ROUGHLY 10-15F BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR/. WITH SNOW COVER, SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLD LOCATIONS IN
WEST MICHIGAN *MAY* FALL TO BELOW ZERO FRIDAY MORNING, AND AGAIN
TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SUFFICE TO SAY, WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY
JANUARY FEEL TO IT, THOUGH THE FIRST OFFICIAL DAY OF WINTER IS
NEARLY THREE WEEKS AWAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT GRR AND MKG OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LEANING ON THE HRDPS WHICH HANDLES THESE KIND OF EVENTS WELL,
MOSTLY MVFR VISBYS ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 18-22Z. OTHERWISE,
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT IFR AT AZO/BTL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THEN, GUIDANCE FAVORS A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS AT AZO,
BTL, LAN, AND JXN, BEFORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS RETURN LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW ALSO ARRIVES,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LAN/JXN WHO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY FROM THE
WSW WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE TAF WINDOW. WE
ALSO APPROACH LLWS CRITERIA AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT MKG AS WE
DECOUPLE FOR A FEW HOURS ON EITHER SIDE OF 12Z.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR LMZ844>849.
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...THOMAS
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