464
FXUS63 KGRR 040440
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1140 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZING DRIZZLE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON
- COLD WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW INTO NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025
- FREEZING DRIZZLE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON
FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS DEVELOPED AS THERE IS A LACK OF CLOUD ICE
WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL SATURATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOOKING AT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WE SHOULD SEE MORE OF A TRANSITION TO SNOW
AROUND 3PM, BUT SOME AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER AS
LONG AS 6PM. WITH COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE
IS EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT AS THE FRONT CLEARS
BUT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER ALONG AND NORTH OF
US-10. SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND A HALF INCH ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO TOWARD VAN BUREN, ALLEGAN, BARRY, AND
KALAMAZOO COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS
WITH SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE TOWARD CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
PENINSULA.
- COLD WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW INTO NEXT WEEK
WINTER CONTINUES WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S AND LOWS LARGELY
IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS. WE'LL HAVE A COUPLE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW INTO NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITHIN THIS SOUTHWEST
FLOW WE COULD INITIALLY SEE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP FOR THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT MOVE IN FRIDAY NIGHT
EXPANDING SNOW CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN MICHIGAN. COLDER AIR FUNNELS
IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE SATURDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
AROUND MINUS 10 C. THIS WILL HELP CONTINUE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME 24 HOUR PROBABILITIES OF 2
INCHES OR MORE ARE LOW (20 PERCENT OR LESS) THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS A DEEPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND THE EXACT TRACK AS SEEN IN THE
CLUSTER ANALYSIS, HOWEVER THERE ARE ENOUGH SIMILARITIES TO RESULT
IN SOME BETTER PROBABILITIES (30 TO 50 PERCENT) OF 2 INCHES OR
MORE OF SNOW WITHIN 24 HOURS ALONG AND WEST OF US-131. WE'LL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TIMEFRAME AS IT COULD IMPACT THE TUESDAY
MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025
AS PREFRONTAL MOISTURE MOVES EASTWARD, POST FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW FILTERS IN. LIGHT SNOW AT LAN ARE THE VESTIGES OF THIS WARM
FRONT.
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS MOVING OVER WESTERN MICHIGAN WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS AT BIV, GRR, MKG, AZO AND BTL. THAT NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL OVERTAKE JXN AND LAN BY 09Z. MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN
LIGHT SNOW THROUGH 10Z. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...CERU
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