297
FXUS63 KGRR 161146
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
646 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LARGELY PRECIPITATION FREE FROM TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
- BRIEF WARM UP WITH RAIN STILL ON TRACK FOR THURSDAY
- LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI
MORNING
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 344 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
- LARGELY PRECIPITATION FREE FROM TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DESPITE A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WE SHOULD STAY PRECIP FREE FOR THE MOST PART.
MOISTURE IS VERY SCANT IN THE PROFILE DURING THIS TIME WITH
TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING THE MAIN ITEM OF NOTE THIS
MORNING. THE WIND SWINGS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TODAY WHICH WILL
LIFT LOW CEILINGS OUT OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING.
WARMER AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA WILL ALSO KNOCK OUT THE LOW
CLOUDS IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WARMING WIPES OUT
THE INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE WHICH IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING OUR
CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 30S TODAY AND 40S ON WEDNESDAY.
- BRIEF WARM UP WITH RAIN STILL ON TRACK FOR THURSDAY
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WORK FROM THE PLAINS STATES ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING RAIN AND A WARM UP THAT WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW AND
LAKE EFFECT INTO FRIDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR GIVEN THE
DEPTH OF THE LOW AND THE STRENGTH OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. NOT
OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES THAT WE MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS 39 KNOTS IS IN THE MIXED
LAYER IN SPOTS, WHICH IS CRITERIA FOR GUSTS. WE HAVE TIME TO LOOK
INTO THIS YET SO NO WIND HEADLINES PLANNED THIS MORNING ON LAND.
AS FOR THE WARMTH AND RAIN, TOTALS LOOK SIMILAR AS THE LAST FEW
DAYS WITH MANY AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE ABOUT 0.40 OF AN INCH. WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THAT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL HERE WITHOUT MUCH
ISSUE. THE FACTOR TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS HOW FAST THE SNOWPACK GOES.
YESTERDAY OUR SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT MEASUREMENT INDICATED THERE WAS
ABOUT 1.20 TO 1.25 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN OUR 7 INCHES OF
SNOW. WE WILL CERTAINLY BE ADDING WATER TO THE EQUATION VIA
MELTING SNOW AND RAIN. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD
FLOODING ISSUES. ALTHOUGH OUR QUICK RESPONDING LOCATIONS OF
VICKSBURG, HOLT, JACKSON AND GRANDVILLE (BUCK CREEK) COULD ALL
MAKE A RUN AT BANKFULL POTENTIALLY. WE COULD SEE SOME LOCAL
PONDING OF WATER IN SPOTS WHERE STORM DRAINS ARE PLUGGED WITH ICE
AND SNOW.
- LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI
MORNING
WE COOL DOWN RAPIDLY BEHIND THE THURSDAY SYSTEM WITH SNOW MIXING
IN AS EARLY AS THE EVENING. WE HAVE A SHORT WINDOW FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AS THE MOISTURE CLEARS OUT FAIRLY QUICK FRIDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE TIME FRAME WHERE WE COULD SEE A QUICK
1-3 OR 2-4 INCHES IN SPOTS AS THE LAKE MACHINE BEGINS AGAIN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
LOW CLOUDS (MVFR CEILINGS) ARE ERODING TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING
AS THE LAKE STRATOCUMULUS IS PUSHED THAT DIRECTION BY SOUTHWEST
WINDS. THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL PUSH NORTH OF ALL OF THE TAF SITES
IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN BY ROUGHLY 16Z. VFR WEATHER IS THEN
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT HOWEVER
LOWER CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. FIRST, MVFR LEVEL CEILINGS
WILL DEVELOP AFTER ROUGHLY 06Z WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DIP TO IFR
TOWARDS 12Z. A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND OF 15-25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED
AT MOST SITES TODAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 344 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
IT IS CERTAINLY THAT TIME OF YEAR... AS ONE MARINE HEADLINE ENDS
ANOTHER BEGINS. WE HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING FROM HOLLAND TO THE
NORTH AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM HOLLAND TO THE SOUTH,
BEGINNING AT NOON. THE GALE CONDITIONS SHOULD END IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE NIGHT TONIGHT WHICH IS WHEN THE GALE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
DOWNGRADED TO MATCH THE SCA TO THE SOUTH. TODAY'S WIND IS
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE (980S MB) MOVING ACROSS CANADA
(ONT INTO QUE) IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN LOOKS TO BE
EVEN A LITTLE TIGHTER WITH STRONGER WINDS THAN YESTERDAY.
STRONGEST WINDS YESTERDAY WERE 48 MPH AT THE GRAND HAVEN LIGHT AND
47 MPH AT BIG SABLE POINT. THERE IS A SMALL SPOTTER BUOY STILL
OUT AT MID LAKE NEAR WHERE 45007 USUALLY SITS (45007 IS OUT FOR
THE SEASON) AND IT REPORTED NEARLY 8 FOOT WAVES YESTERDAY. SO OUR
GALE/WAVE EVENT FORECAST WORKED OUT ON MONDAY AND TODAY'S EVENT
LOOKS SIMILAR, MAYBE JUST A TAD STRONGER.
ANOTHER STRONG LOW (980S MB ONCE AGAIN) WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER LIKELY ROUND OF GALE
WARNINGS. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE AHEAD OF THE LOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHEN 40 KNOT GALES LOOK POSSIBLE
AGAIN.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844-845.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LMZ846>849.
DISCUSSION...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page