738
FXUS63 KGRR 162333
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
633 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THAW/FREEZE THIS WEEK WITH RAIN TO SNOW ON THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
- THAW/FREEZE WITH RAIN TO SNOW ON THURSDAY
AFTER A LONG STRETCH OF ARCTIC COLD, MILDER AIR ADVECTS INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS CULMINATING IN RAIN ON THURSDAY AHEAD
OF AN EASTWARD SURGING COLD FRONT, FOLLOWED BY A CHANGE TO SNOW
AND SLIPPERY TRAVEL FOR FRIDAY.
FOR TONIGHT, WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AN AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOWERS COMING IN FROM THE WEST INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN,
WHICH COULD BRING LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP, MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN UNSATURATED DGZ BUT NOT
MUCH LIFT THROUGH THE LOW CLOUD LAYER, SO ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE
LIGHT ENOUGH THAT TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
A SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING NORTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN ON
THURSDAY WITH RAIN BREAKING OUT EARLY IN THE DAY AS THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT FEEDS MOISTURE NORTHWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS SE LOWER MICHIGAN BY AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST TOTAL RAIN
ON THURSDAY IS AROUND .30 TO .40 OF AN INCH. WITH ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPS AND WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 MPH, WE EXPECT SNOWMELT AS WELL
BUT A QUICK FREEZE UP ON THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THE
LIQUID FROM REACHING THE RIVERS.
THERE COULD BE IMPACTS TO TRAVEL FOR THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE AS
RESIDUAL WATER ON PAVEMENT FROM SNOWMELT AND RAIN FREEZES INTO
ICE. LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO ADD AN INCH OR TWO OF
POWDER ON TOP OF THE ICE, PROLONGING TRAVEL IMPACTS ON UNTREATED
SURFACES INTO THE EVENING COMMUTE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
LLWS AROUND 40 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR AND
ISOLATED IFR ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING,
ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
DISCUSSION...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
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