532
FXUS63 KGRR 200445
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1145 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW AND WIND DIMINISHING
- WARMER SATURDAY, COLDER SUNDAY
- A WARM CHRISTMAS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
- SNOW AND WIND DIMINISHING
AFTER PEAKING AROUND 45 MPH AT A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS (GRR & LAN),
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE LAKE. RADAR ALSO SHOWS A SLOW DECREASE IN ECHOS AND ECHO TOPS
THAT'S EXPECTED AS WARMER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO FLOW OVER THE LAKE.
THERE HAS BEEN A SMALL EROSION OF THE WESTERN CLOUD EDGE OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR SO, SIGNALING THE ARRIVAL OF THE
WARMER AIR ALOFT. AT THIS POINT, WE'LL LET THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 4 PM. HOWEVER, THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE SOME
SNOW ONGOING; BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- WARMER SATURDAY, COLDER SUNDAY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH MID DAY AND GIVE US AROUND A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH. SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD MIX IN NEAR
THE LAKE SHORE AND PERHAPS A LITTLE SLEET OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA.
H8 TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FROM -4C TO -18C BY SUNDAY MORNING,
SETTING US UP FOR A COLD SUNDAY; HIGHS LOWER TO MID 20S.
- A WARM CHRISTMAS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OVER THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THE
WARMUP WILL COMMENCE. H8 TEMPERATURES WARM TO +2C BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON, PLUS 4C BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND +7C BY CHRISTMAS.
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH;
PERHAPS A HALF INCH NORTH OF I-96.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ADVECT INTO THE REGION. LIGHT
RAIN IS POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS EVE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA. A 15-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN EXISTS ON
CHRISTMAS. IT WON'T BE SNOW, THOUGH AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE
MID 40S NEAR US-10 TO MID 50S SOUTH OF I-96. TEMPERATURES AT THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND WILL REMAIN MILD TOO; HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
AS A BROAD LATITUDINAL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH WINDS
BUILDING OVERNIGHT GUSTING AROUND 25 KNOTS. LLWS DEVELOPS AFTER
9Z TONIGHT WITH A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MOVING OVER THE REGION.
THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA AROUND 18Z.
A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALONG THE FRONT A
WINTRY MIX OF RAIN, SNOW, AND POSSIBLY ICE PELLETS IS POSSIBLE
WITH CEILINGS AROUND 4000 FEET. CHANCES ARE HIGHEST TOWARD MKG
(40-50 PERCENT) AND AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR GRR WITH LOWERING
CHANCES AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST. PEAK GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 35
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
WE EXTENDED THE GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM BASED ON OBS ALONG THE
LAKE SHORE. WE ALSO ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM UNTIL
6 PM SATURDAY, AT WHICH TIME WE MAY NEED ANOTHER GALE WARNING AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...RAH
MARINE...04
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