973
FXUS63 KGRR 060442
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1142 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ICING TONIGHT NORTH
- RAIN THURSDAY THEN WEEKEND SNOW CHANCES
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 851 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
WE HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTHWARD A TAD, TO
NOW INCLUDE MONTCALM, GRATIOT, AND OCEANA COUNTIES. THE TIMING OF
THESE COUNTIES MAY BE A LITTLE EARLY FOR THE MAIN EVENT, BUT WERE
MATCHED UP WITH THE COUNTIES ALREADY IN THE HEADLINE.
LATEST DATA COMING IN THIS EVENING IS CONFIRMING WHAT THE 12Z HREF
WAS SHOWING, THAT THE FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS HEADLINES. THESE COUNTIES ARE ON
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE AREA NOTORIOUS FOR HOLDING ON TO SUB-
FREEZING AIR LONG ENOUGH IN THESE SCENARIOS FOR IMPACTS TO BE
FELT FROM FREEZING RAIN.
THE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 6 AND 8 AM WITH
TEMPERATURES AT THESE LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO BE 30-31F. BEING ON
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE EXPECTED FREEZING RAIN, THEY WILL WARM UP
A LITTLE SOONER THAN FURTHER NORTH. WE EXPECT THEY SHOULD BE ABOVE
FREEZING BY LATE MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
- ICING TONIGHT NORTH
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND 32F PERSISTING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIP TYPE WILL A MIX AT THE ONSET THIS
EVENING AS THE COLUMN WET BULBS CLOSE TO ZERO WITH A QUICK BURST
OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN SOME SLEET AND SNOW THIS EVENING
TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN WITH A WARM WEDGE RIGHT
ABOVE THE SURFACE AND COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING AT THE SURFACE AS
THE LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA.
WE EXPECT ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ADVISORY AREA WITH UP TO 0.15 TO 0.20 INCHES IN THE HIGHER GROUND
OF OSCEOLA AND CLARE COUNTIES, THE SAME AREAS THAT WERE HIT HARD A
COUPLE WEEKS AGO. FORTUNATELY, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY, GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS. TEMPERATURES COULD EDGE ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS MASON AND NEWAYGO COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING WHILE
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
OSCEOLA AND CLARE COUNTIES.
- RAIN THURSDAY THEN WEEKEND SNOW CHANCES
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESULTS IN SOUTHERN PLAINS
CYCLOGENESIS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW CENTER PROGGED TO TRACK
RIGHT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY. COLD AIR IS LACKING AND
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE RAIN UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.
THERE COULD BE MORE SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE POLAR JET
DESCENDS SOUTH AGAIN WITH TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
LOW CLOUDS HAVE NOW CLEARED OUT OF ALL OF THE TERMINALS, WITH KMKG
BEING THE LAST SITE WITHIN THE LAST HOUR. MID CLOUDS UP AROUND
10-15K FT AGL REMAIN TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOST SITES ARE
MVFR TO START WITH SOME LIGHT FOG IN PLACE AND VISIBILITIES AROUND
4-6SM.
WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION BREAK OUT AT THE TERMINALS LIKELY
BETWEEN 10-12Z. THE LATEST TRENDS INDICATE THAT TEMPS SHOULD BE
ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS WHEN IT BEGINS, OR IT WILL
JUMP VERY QUICKLY AS THE WARMER RAIN FROM ABOVE WARMS THE SFC.
WITHIN 2-4 HOURS OF THE RAIN BEGINNING, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP TO IFR. SITES WILL EVENTUALLY GO TO LIFR BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, AND STAY THERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FOR GRR 06Z UPDATE...
THE 25% CHANCE MENTIONED IN THE MESSAGING EARLIER HAS LIKELY
DROPPED A BIT MORE. THE CHANCE IS STILL NOT ZERO, BUT LATEST DATA
GIVES A HIGH LIKELIHOOD TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING WHEN PRECIPITATION STARTS.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
043>046-051-052.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...NJJ
DISCUSSION...OSTUNO
AVIATION...NJJ
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