902
FXUS63 KGRR 061950
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
250 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG THIS EVENING
- RAIN LATE THURSDAY THEN WEEKEND SNOW CHANCES
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
- FOG THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE FORMED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 30S ARE
LOCATED AND PRECIP HAS TAPERED OFF. WE CURRENTLY HAVE AN SPS OUT
FOR THE FOG BUT MAY NEED TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY IF IT PERSISTS INTO
THE EVENING. THE CONTINUED PRECIP FURTHER NORTH SHOULD KEEP
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FROM FORMING UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.
- RAIN LATE THURSDAY THEN WEEKEND SNOW CHANCES
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESULTS IN SOUTHERN PLAINS
CYCLOGENESIS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW CENTER PROGGED TO TRACK
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BY LATE THURSDAY. COLD AIR IS LACKING AND
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE RAIN. QPF HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD SINCE YESTERDAY
AS THE LOW IS NOW FORECAST TO TRACK FURTHER WEST AND OUR AREA MAY
BE DRY SLOTTED THURSDAY NIGHT.
THINGS GET INTERESTING ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS THEN PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
AND DRAWS IN COLD AIR. RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE SHARP UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
PREDOMINANTLY LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVAILING FOR THE TAF
PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
FOLLOWED BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAPPING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT LIFR VARIABLE WITH IFR
AND LOWER VISBYS OVERNIGHT. SOME SIGNALS FOR DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT
THANKS TO ONGOING SNOWMELT FURTHER ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE,
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL AT AZO AND BTL. VISBYS SHOULD IMPROVE AT
LEAST SOMEWHAT AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY WITH LOW CIGS PERSISTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF WINDOW. EASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY LATE AFTERNOON TO WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...OSTUNO
AVIATION...THOMAS
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