481
FXUS63 KGRR 070431
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1131 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG THIS EVENING
- RAIN LATE THURSDAY THEN WEEKEND SNOW CHANCES
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
- FOG THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE FORMED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 30S ARE
LOCATED AND PRECIP HAS TAPERED OFF. WE CURRENTLY HAVE AN SPS OUT
FOR THE FOG BUT MAY NEED TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY IF IT PERSISTS INTO
THE EVENING. THE CONTINUED PRECIP FURTHER NORTH SHOULD KEEP
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FROM FORMING UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.
- RAIN LATE THURSDAY THEN WEEKEND SNOW CHANCES
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESULTS IN SOUTHERN PLAINS
CYCLOGENESIS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW CENTER PROGGED TO TRACK
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BY LATE THURSDAY. COLD AIR IS LACKING AND
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE RAIN. QPF HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD SINCE YESTERDAY
AS THE LOW IS NOW FORECAST TO TRACK FURTHER WEST AND OUR AREA MAY
BE DRY SLOTTED THURSDAY NIGHT.
THINGS GET INTERESTING ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS THEN PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
AND DRAWS IN COLD AIR. RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE SHARP UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1131 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE THIS FORECAST PERIOD
ACROSS ALL OF THE TERMINALS. WE ARE SEEING WIDESPREAD LIFR
CONDITIONS WITH A FEW POCKETS OF VLIFR AND A FEW POCKETS OF IFR.
LIFR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS A LITTLE HOPE THAT THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK JANUARY DIURNAL MIXING WILL
LIFT THE CLOUDS AND HELP VISIBILITIES JUST A LITTLE. OUR THINKING
IS THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO IFR AT ALL SITES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THINGS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...OSTUNO
AVIATION...NJJ
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