650
FXUS63 KGRR 081957
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
257 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY
- SNOW THIS WEEKEND
- RAIN/SNOW CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 257 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
- RAIN THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST BRINGING A ROUND OF RAIN AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE, POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION, WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND
A STRONG 60-70KT LOW LEVEL JET.
AS MENTIONED BEFORE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1 IN
THE NORTH TO 1.2 ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WHICH IS ABOVE THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX. A BAND OF 1-1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE
WHILE MOST AREAS SEE LESS THAN AN INCH. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY END
FRIDAY MORNING AND MAY MIX WITH SOME SNOW NORTH OF M-20. THE
INVERSION WILL PREVENT WINDS FROM REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS,
HOWEVER GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE
AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE SOME
STRONGER GUSTS COULD MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH THE RAIN AND ANY
THUNDERSTORM.
- SNOW THIS WEEKEND
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A ROUND
OF SNOW TO THE AREA. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT TREND DOWNWARD IN
AMOUNTS, HOWEVER STILL LOOKING LIKE AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL
ALONG THE LAKESHORE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
PROBABILITY OF 2 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS 70 PERCENT OR GREATER
ALONG AND WEST OF US-131. AS SNOW TRANSITIONS MORE TO LAKE EFFECT
SUNDAY MORNING, MOST OF THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FOCUSED IN
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20-30 MPH DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WITH GUSTS ALONG THE LAKESHORE POTENTIALLY TO 35 MPH.
HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S.
- RAIN/SNOW CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK
WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THERE IS NOT CLEAR PROLONGED DRY BREAK
AS WE SEE SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
BRINGING WITH IT RAIN/SNOW CHANCES. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION IS
MORE LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S BEFORE BECOMING
COLDER THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD WILL GO DOWNHILL OVER THE NEXT
6 HOURS AS A LARGE AND FAST-MOVING STORM MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PUSHED A STRONG WARM
FRONT NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN, WITH WINDS A FEW
THOUSAND FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALREADY CLIMBING PAST THE 30 TO
40 KT RANGE. BY THIS EVENING, LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE
WIDESPREAD IN THE 50+ KT RANGE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT ALL
LOCATIONS, WITH ROUNDS OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN LIFR AT
TIMES THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME OF THE GUSTY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
BE WORKING DOWN TO THE SURFACE, BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN ALOFT WITH LLWS CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. BY MID-MORNING ON FRIDAY, WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE AS TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN DROP AND CIGS
LIKELY IMPROVE ONLY TO MVFR.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR LMZ844>849.
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...AMD
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