784
FXUS63 KGRR 090849
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
349 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY, ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING
- SNOW STILL EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING
- CLIPPER SYSTEM NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TO BRING RAIN/SNOW
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 349 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
- STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY, ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING
WE ARE CONCERNED WITH A STRONG SURGE OF WIND THAT IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 6AM
AND 10AM OR SO. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR MANY RUNS NOW
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR 45 TO 55 MPH WINDS BEGINNING ALONG THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE (6-7AM) AND SURGING TO THE EAST TOWARDS
GRAND RAPIDS, KALAMAZOO, LANSING AND JACKSON THIS MORNING. THE
STRONGEST WINDS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO BE FROM MUSKEGON TO
MT. PLEASANT AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH, ESPECIALLY FROM I-96 TO THE
SOUTH. THE ENTIRE AREA STANDS A CHANCE AT 45+ MPH WINDS THOUGH AND
WE THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 4PM. BUFKIT
OVERVIEWS VIA THE 3KM NAM SHOW 60 MPH IN THE MIXED LAYER, BUT NOT
CONFIDENT WE WILL GO THAT HIGH. THE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR
MIXING DOWN THE STRONG WINDS. THE ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT OF THE
WIND IS QUITE STRONG TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SUB 995MB LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES PER THE HRRR ARE
FORECAST TO EXCEED 15MB TODAY WHICH IS VERY STRONG.
- SNOW STILL EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE SNOW POTENTIAL FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH TWO UPPER WAVES THAT PHASE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THIS WEEKEND. A SOUTHERN UPPER WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
NEW MEXICO WITH ANOTHER WAVE DIVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THESE TWO WAVES TAKE AIM ON THE GREAT LAKES AND PHASE INTO AN
UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS TOMORROW, LIKELY
SITUATED OVER LAKE HURON BY EVENING. COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD MAINLY BE SNOW
TOMORROW AND SUNDAY. THE EVENT HAS BOTH A SYNOPTIC SCALE BOOST TO
IT VIA THE UPPER TROUGH, BUT ALSO A LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT AS WEST
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH DELTA T'S INCREASING INTO THE
MIDDLE TEENS C BY SUNDAY MORNING. WE ARE LIKELY LOOKING AT 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW ON SATURDAY MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-96 AND THEN
ANOTHER 1-3 POTENTIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT NEAR AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
131. 2-6 INCHES IS NOT TOO SIGNIFICANT FOR MICHIGAN IN JANUARY,
BUT WE MAY NEED A WINTER WX ADVISORY WITH TIME OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.
- CLIPPER SYSTEM NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TO BRING RAIN/SNOW
A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS
WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN STAYING MAINLY
IN ONTARIO. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BOOST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARDS -15C.
SOME ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN. WE
WILL BE TRENDING COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR MID
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY VFR/MVFR THROUGH 12Z ALTHOUGH SOME
PATCHY IFR IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
GUST OVER 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
MORNING AND WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. LLWS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE FORECAST, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM
MVFR IN THE MORNING TO VFR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 349 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
WE ARE EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS TODAY IN 2 DIFFERENT PERIODS.
THE FIRST IS THIS MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MAY SURGE WIND SPEEDS IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS TO NEAR 45 KNOTS.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS FIRST SURGE WILL LIKELY BE FROM 6AM
TO 10AM. AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES EAST, WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES IS LIKELY IN
THE LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS. BOTTOM LINE...GALE CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TODAY. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7PM, BUT THIS
WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS
AFTERNOON. WE GAVE A BUFFER ON THE GALE JUST IN CASE THE WIND
PERSISTS A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN EXPECTED. THE GALES ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A 994MB LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037>040-
043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
DISCUSSION...DUKE
AVIATION...OSTUNO
MARINE...DUKE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page