735
FXUS63 KGRR 091158
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
658 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY, ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING
- SNOW STILL EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING
- CLIPPER SYSTEM NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TO BRING RAIN/SNOW
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 349 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
- STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY, ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING
WE ARE CONCERNED WITH A STRONG SURGE OF WIND THAT IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 6AM
AND 10AM OR SO. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR MANY RUNS NOW
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR 45 TO 55 MPH WINDS BEGINNING ALONG THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE (6-7AM) AND SURGING TO THE EAST TOWARDS
GRAND RAPIDS, KALAMAZOO, LANSING AND JACKSON THIS MORNING. THE
STRONGEST WINDS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO BE FROM MUSKEGON TO
MT. PLEASANT AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH, ESPECIALLY FROM I-96 TO THE
SOUTH. THE ENTIRE AREA STANDS A CHANCE AT 45+ MPH WINDS THOUGH AND
WE THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 4PM. BUFKIT
OVERVIEWS VIA THE 3KM NAM SHOW 60 MPH IN THE MIXED LAYER, BUT NOT
CONFIDENT WE WILL GO THAT HIGH. THE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR
MIXING DOWN THE STRONG WINDS. THE ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT OF THE
WIND IS QUITE STRONG TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SUB 995MB LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES PER THE HRRR ARE
FORECAST TO EXCEED 15MB TODAY WHICH IS VERY STRONG.
- SNOW STILL EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE SNOW POTENTIAL FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH TWO UPPER WAVES THAT PHASE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THIS WEEKEND. A SOUTHERN UPPER WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
NEW MEXICO WITH ANOTHER WAVE DIVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THESE TWO WAVES TAKE AIM ON THE GREAT LAKES AND PHASE INTO AN
UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS TOMORROW, LIKELY
SITUATED OVER LAKE HURON BY EVENING. COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD MAINLY BE SNOW
TOMORROW AND SUNDAY. THE EVENT HAS BOTH A SYNOPTIC SCALE BOOST TO
IT VIA THE UPPER TROUGH, BUT ALSO A LAKE EFFECT COMPONENT AS WEST
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH DELTA T'S INCREASING INTO THE
MIDDLE TEENS C BY SUNDAY MORNING. WE ARE LIKELY LOOKING AT 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW ON SATURDAY MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-96 AND THEN
ANOTHER 1-3 POTENTIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT NEAR AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
131. 2-6 INCHES IS NOT TOO SIGNIFICANT FOR MICHIGAN IN JANUARY,
BUT WE MAY NEED A WINTER WX ADVISORY WITH TIME OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.
- CLIPPER SYSTEM NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TO BRING RAIN/SNOW
A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS
WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN STAYING MAINLY
IN ONTARIO. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BOOST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARDS -15C.
SOME ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN. WE
WILL BE TRENDING COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR MID
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 657 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS
TIME (12Z) WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS. WITHIN THE LAST HOUR HOLLAND
(BIV) HAS GUSTED TO 48 KNOTS. WINDS GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WILL
BE COMMON THROUGH 15Z-16Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TRAIL OFF THROUGH
THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS A CONCERN THROUGH 15Z-16Z AS WELL AS WINDS AT 2000FT
WILL BE 210/50KTS.
IN TERMS OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES MUCH OF THE TAF SITES ARE VFR AS OF
1130Z, BUT THAT WILL CHANGE AS LOWER CLOUDS (MVFR) AND EVEN IFR
CLOUDS MOVE IN THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL FOR A TIME,
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WE MAY SEE A RESURGENCE OF MVFR
CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS 12Z.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037>040-
043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
DISCUSSION...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
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