438
FXUS63 KGRR 110518
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1218 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREAK IN SNOW THIS EVENING; ONE MORE ROUND TONIGHT
- MILDER EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY
- COLDER MID TO LATE WEEK WITH SOME SNOW SHOWER CHANCES
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
- BREAK IN SNOW THIS EVENING; ONE MORE ROUND TONIGHT
A WET SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION
SINCE LATE MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW
(WELL DEFINED ON MID LEVEL WV IMAGERY ACROSS NORTHERN WI) AND WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA AS THE LOWER TO
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE SATURATED WITH SOME LIFT
THROUGHOUT THE DGZ. IMPRESSIVE FLAKE SIZE HAS BEEN OBSERVED GIVEN
10 UBAR/S OF LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ AT TIMES. HOWEVER, ACCUMULATION
EFFICIENCY ON ROADS HAS BEEN HELD IN CHECK GIVEN WARM ANTECEDENT
GROUND TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE HAD TO BE OVERCOME BY HIGHER
SNOWFALL RATES, THOUGH UNPAVED SURFACES LOOK TO HAVE 1"-2" OF
ACCUMULATION IN THE ADVISORY AREA AT THIS TIME. THE SCALES ARE NOW
TIPPING NEAR AND NORTH OF MUSKEGON AS STEADY SNOW FOR HOURS HAS
HELPED BRING AIR TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 30-32F RANGE AND MDOT
RWIS ROAD TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 31F-32F RANGE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
SNOW TO STICK TO SOME ROAD SURFACES AS OBSERVED ACROSS OCEANA AND
MASON COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE, WET SNOW HAS LARGELY MELTED ON CONTACT
ON HARD SURFACES OR HAS ACCUMULATED TO AN INCH OR TWO ON GRASS.
FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD I-94, RAIN HAS BEEN THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE.
A BREAK IN THE SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING BEFORE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES OVER THE LAKE AND ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI. 1000-700MB AIR
TRAJECTORIES INDICATE A W TO NW WIND SHIFT AS LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS. A PERIOD OF ENHANCED MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THIS
LAYER SUPPORTS A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED AND THEN, BRIEFLY, LAKE
EFFECT SNOW FROM ABOUT 03Z-15Z SUNDAY. AN ADDITIONAL 1"-2",
LOCALLY 3", IS LIKELY FOR THE LAKESHORE AND U.S. 10 FROM THE
LAKESHORE TO AROUND REED CITY. THERE MAY BE A SIMILAR MAXIMUM FROM
SOUTH HAVEN TO WESTERN KALAMAZOO COUNTY DEPENDING ON THE BAND
PLACEMENT.
- MILDER EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY
WARMER 850MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 2C-5C ARRIVE BY TUESDAY AHEAD
OF SOME LONGWAVE TROUGHING THAT WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION INTO MID TO LATE WEEK. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE THE DOMINANT
P-TYPE WITH AMOUNTS LOOKING LIKELY TO BE AROUND 0.10".
- COLDER MID TO LATE WEEK WITH SOME SNOW SHOWER CHANCES
DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGHING EXERTS ITSELF ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL
LEAD TO A DROP IN TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. WHILE THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE, IT IS WELL AGREED UPON THAT TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND BEHIND IT WILL FALL INTO
THE TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AT SOME POINT.
WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND HOW QUICKLY TEMPS FALL WILL
DICTATE ASSOCIATED TRAVEL IMPACTS, IF ANY. AT THIS POINT IT IS
WORTH MONITORING THE POTENTIAL.
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL SOLUTION, VARIOUS VORT MAXES MAY BE
SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BETWEEN THURSDAY AND THE END OF
NEXT WEEKEND. ANY ONE OF THESE COULD HELP PRODUCE ENOUGH SYNOPTIC
LIFT TO SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES
WILL BE BETTER PINNED DOWN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FROM 00Z TO NOW IS MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE LARGELY
FROM GRR TO LAN AND SOUTHWARD BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW MOVES
IN SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE ALONG A FRONT WITH NORTHWEST GUSTS
AROUND 30 KNOTS. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH THE QUICK BURST OF SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES. OVERALL
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF UNDER AN INCH ARE EXPECTED BUT AREAS ALONG
THE LAKESHORE INCLUDING AZO COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES.
WITH THE SNOW EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 2000 FEET WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH ANY GOOD
BURST OF SNOW. ALONG THE LAKESHORE EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT INLAND AREAS COULD SCATTER OUT TO
VFR.
GRR AIRPORT DSS UPDATE:
OVERALL THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
UNDER AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOWFALL RATES UP
TO 0.2" PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 238 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
SCA CONTINUES INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A GALE
WARNING AS COLD NW FLOW MOVES OVER THE LAKE. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR WINDS AND GUSTS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE TIMING OF
THE GALE WARNING ON SUNDAY, SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE. BEYOND
SUNDAY, WAVES CONTINUE TO LOOK ACTIVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
WITH FREQUENT FRONTAL PASSAGES.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ037>039-043>045-050.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LMZ844>849.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LMZ844>849.
DISCUSSION...HOVING
AVIATION...RAH
MARINE...HOVING
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