926
FXUS63 KGRR 111948
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
248 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN TUESDAY CHANGING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY
- COLD AND UNSETTLED THURSDAY-SUNDAY; SNOWY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
- RAIN TUESDAY CHANGING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING OCCURING OVER THE EASTERN
CWA AND MOVING WESTWARD. RH PROGS INDICATE SOME CONTINUED CLEARING
THIS EVENING BEFORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE'LL BE DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, THEN RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE THE LEAD WAVE IN
A WAVE TRAIN THAT WILL CARVE OUT A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
INITIALLY, TUESDAY, PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN AS WE'LL BE
NEAR THE WARM FRONT OF THE LOW THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UP.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WON'T MOVE THROUGH UNTIL WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AT THAT POINT, WE'LL SEE RAIN CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. H8 TEMPERATURES FALL TO -16 BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE PROGD TO BE NNELY SUGGESTING
THAT WE WON'T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LES. WE'LL NEED TO KEEP ANY
EYE ON THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE SOME LES FROM LAKE HURON MAY BE
POSSIBLE.
- COLD AND UNSETTLED THURSDAY-SUNDAY; SNOWY
ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE WAVE TRAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL MORE WAVES
FOLLOWING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HARD TO PIN DOWN TIMING ON THESE
WAVES, BUT THE MERE PRESENCE OF THE THEM SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF
SOME SYNOPTIC AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
HIGHS HAVE TRENDED COLDER FOR THURSDAY; LOWER 20S NOW EXPECTED
AND IT'S POSSIBLE WE WON'T GET OUT OF THE TEENS. LOWER TO MID 20S
HIGHS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 104 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THIS PERIOD SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE BUT ARE SLOWLY DWINDLING. SO HAVE VICINITY SHOWERS ALONG
THE COAST BUT THESE SHOULD FADE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT THE
LATEST.
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF
PERIOD. EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE AFTER 06Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST CAUSING WINDS TO SLACKEN. HOWEVER ANOTHER JET WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING A ROUND OF
GUSTY WINDS UNCHARACTERISTICALLY OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR COULD LINGER, OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
LMZ844>849.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...CERU
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