188
FXUS63 KGRR 311926
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
226 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD TONIGHT, THEN WARMING UP
- CLIPPER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
- ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
- COLD TONIGHT, THEN WARMING UP
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. THE CLEAR SKIES PAIRED WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. COLLABORATING WITH OTHER
OFFICES IN MICHIGAN WENT TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. PROBABILITIES OF TEMPERATURES OF 5 BELOW
ZERO OR LOWER ARE 40 TO 70 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A
20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES REACHING -10 MAINLY ALONG
US-131. AT THIS TIME NOT PLANNING A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AS
CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH THAT WE'LL SEE WIND CHILLS MUCH
BELOW AIR TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE CALM WINDS.
AFTER TONIGHT THE WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN FOR THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
ABOVE ZERO. HOWEVER THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR COLD WEATHER TO RETURN
NEXT WEEKEND.
- CLIPPER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
SNOW RETURNS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. THE DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO
MOVE OFF BY THE AFTERNOON SO THE BEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OVERALL MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW WITH THE BETTER ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE
LAKESHORE NORTH OF SOUTH HAVEN WHERE THE PROBABILITY OF AN INCH OR
MORE IS 60-80 PERCENT. AREAS NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN HAVE A 30 TO 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF 2 INCHES OR MORE. WITH THE SNOWFALL OCCURING
DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE LIKELY.
- ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
A DEEPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE CLUSTER ANALYSIS ON THE
STRENGTHS AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT SNOWFALL
TOTALS. AT THIS TIME WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WESTERLY FLOW OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN COULD SPARK LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY
THURSDAY BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN ON THE BACKSIDE WILL LIKELY
CAUSE A TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. CURRENTLY THE 24 HOUR PROBABILITY OF 2 INCHES
OR MORE IS 30 TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA AND THE PROBABILITY OF
2 INCHES OR MORE IS 20 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE BEST PROBABILITIES
ALONG THE LAKESHORE. DEFINITELY A TIMEFRAME TO WATCH WITH SNOW
IMPACTING AT LEAST THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
MVFR STRATOCU COVERS ALL OFF THE TERMINALS EXCEPT MKG. HOWEVER,
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF CLEAR SKIES
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES BY EARLY EVENING.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...04
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