223
FXUS63 KGRR 011804
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
104 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CLIPPER BRINGS SNOW TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
- ANOTHER CLIPPER WITH SNOW EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
- TEMPERATURES ON A MODERATING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 341 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
- CLIPPER BRINGS SNOW TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE A COUPLE OF CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE NEXT 7
DAYS, CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS SEVERE AS THEY WERE
THE PAST 2 WEEKS. THE MAIN REASONS FOR THIS IS TWO FOLD...A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SO ROAD CONDITIONS WILL BE BETTER AND
HEAVY SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THE FIRST CHANCE FOR SNOW OCCURS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WHEN A
CLIPPER MOVES FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO PASSING NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. GIVEN THE FACT THE LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA WE ARE NOT EXPECTING HEAVY SNOW ALONG ITS SOUTHWARD EXTENDING
COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA ON MONDAY. MOST AREAS WILL
SEE A TRACE TO AROUND A HALF INCH OF SNOW. AREAS FROM GRAND HAVEN
NORTHWARD TO LUDINGTON AND BALDWIN COULD SEE A GENERAL 1-2 INCH
SNOW AS THE LAKE ENHANCES THE SYNOPTIC SNOW A BIT. DELTA T'S WILL
BE MARGINAL BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A LAKE COMPONENT TO THE
OVERALL SNOW. IF THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY IS GOING TO BE
AFFECTED MUCH IT WILL BE FOR PLACES LIKE MUSKEGON, LUDINGTON AND
FREMONT. THE LIFT THAT IS SEEN IN BUFKIT OVERVIEWS IS NOT CENTERED
IN THE DGZ, SO FLAKE SIZE WILL LIKELY BE SMALL. DEEPEST MOISTURE
IS CENTERED RIGHT AROUND 7AM MONDAY.
- ANOTHER CLIPPER WITH SNOW EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MUCH OF THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME IS CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE. THEREFORE THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME
WILL FEATURE QUIET WEATHER.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING SENSIBLE WEATHER TO THE REGION WILL BE A
STRONGER CLIPPER THAT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE CLIPPER WILL HAVE A POTENT COLD FRONT THAT IS SET TO TRAVERSE
THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. A MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS SYSTEM DUE TO A DEEPER LOW AND A MUCH MORE FORMIDABLE MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAIN
CONSISTENT MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN IN THE 1-3 OR 2-4 INCH RANGE.
- TEMPERATURES ON A MODERATING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK
THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST TRULY COLD MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES HAVE MODERATED. THE -20C AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE
GONE AND WE SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO -10C ALL WEEK. THIS RESULTS
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING IN THE 20S MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH LOWS
IN THE TEENS. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL PROBABLY BE FRIDAY
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY
BE AROUND 30 WHICH IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE DO COOL OFF
ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT THE COLD AIR
SURGE IS MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW ESPECIALLY IN THE ECMWF.
BOTTOM LINE...PRETTY TYPICAL WINTER WEATHER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH A
COUPLE CHANCES FOR SNOW AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION, BUT A BAND OF STRATOCU
OVER THE LAKE IS MOVING EAST AND WILL AFFECT MKG WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND MAY GET TO GRR PRIOR TO SUNSET.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING TOWARD THE STATE AND WILL GENERATE LIGHT
SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL DEVELOP AS THE SNOW MOVES
EAST. THE SNOW WILL END MONDAY MORNING, BUT VISIBILITIES WILL
REMAIN MVFR AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUKE
AVIATION...04
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