427
FXUS63 KGRR 030459
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1159 PM EST MON FEB 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING
- SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
- COLDER WITH LAKE EFFECT NEXT WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST MON FEB 2 2026
-LINGERING LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND ICY ROADS FROM MUSKEGON COUNTY TO GRATIOT COUNTY AND SOUTH. AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS ANY FREEZING
DRIZZLE SHOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW. ANY ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD BE A LIGHT GLAZE WITH SNOW AMOUNTS LESS THAN A HALF INCH.
AREAS TO THE NORTH HAVE ONLY OBSERVED SNOW, THEREFORE HAVE
CANCELLED THE ADVISORY IN THESE AREAS.
- SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NO CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO
FALL FOR 2 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW NOW AT 20 PERCENT OR LESS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COULD BRING
SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE DAY THURSDAY
OTHERWISE MOST OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA
RESULTING IN THE LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. EITHER WAY THIS NUISANCE
SNOW FOR THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE COULD BRING SOME BRIEF TRAVEL
IMPACTS. FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING
WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE MID JANUARY.
- COLDER WITH LAKE EFFECT NEXT WEEKEND
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
BRINGING WITH IT HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S AND LOWS NEAR ZERO
OVER THE WEEKEND. MEAN 850MB TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING AROUND
-16C WILL RESULT IN LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES AROUND -18C
WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. 850MB TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY WARM DURING THE WEEKEND REDUCING THAT TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE WITH LAKE EFFECT GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 PM EST MON FEB 2 2026
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES BUT HAS DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY AND IS NOT
OBSCURING VISIBILITY MUCH. MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A MODEST INCREASE IN
SNOW INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TILL
DAYBREAK AS A TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. SOME SCATTERING TO VFR IS
POSSIBLE DURING PART OF THE DAYTIME, MORE SO IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN,
BUT MVFR STRATOCUMULUS MAY REDEVELOP AGAIN WITH DAYTIME MIXING.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...CAS
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