954
FXUS63 KGRR 031141
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
641 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
- COLD THIS WEEKEND THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
- A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW FROM MONDAY HAS DIMINISHED TO SOME
SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING. THE WAVE THAT WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW FROM YESTERDAY IS WELL EAST OF THE AREA
OVER NEW ENGLAND ALREADY.
THERE ARE A FEW FEATURES OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO THAT WILL KEEP
SMALL LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. THE FIRST IS A WEAK SFC
TROUGH THAT IS TRAILING BEHIND A SHORT WAVE OVER GEORGIAN BAY EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE SNOW IS NOT WIDESPREAD, AND WHERE IT IS, IT IS
GENERALLY LIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES ONLY DOWN TO 3-5 MILES. MOISTURE
IS NOT DEEP WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 4-5K FT DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA.
WE WILL THEN SEE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE OVER THE WESTERN U.P. DROP SE
TOWARD THE AREA, AND A FINAL ONE PASS THROUGH FROM WISCONSIN THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES WILL HELP
VEER WINDS TO THE NNE TONIGHT, TAKING MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY OFFSHORE, EXCEPT MAYBE LITTLE AND BIG SABLE POINTS.
SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN COME ONSHORE ON WED, AND
DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE FLOW TURNS ONSHORE WITH SFC RIDGING DIVING
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE BUILDING SUBSIDENCE WILL ONLY CONTINUE
TO SQUASH THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
THE PERSISTENT FLOW FROM THE NW IN THIS LA NINA YEAR WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP THE SOLID WINTER WEATHER IN PLACE FOR THE REGION. THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL DROP IN ON THURSDAY. AS THIS WAVE
MOVES THROUGH, WE WILL SEE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SW ESSENTIALLY
PROVIDE STEADY WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR THE AREA. EVEN WITH THESE TWO
FORCING MECHANISMS MOVING THROUGH, DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING, SO
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL BE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION
GENERATION. IT HAS A STRONGER UPPER JET SUPPORTING THE WAVE, WHICH
HELPS WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE WAVE. WE ALSO HAVE A SFC TROUGH
COMING THROUGH TO SUPPLY THE LOW LEVEL FORCING. FINALLY, MOISTURE IS
DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE HIGHER
THAN THE THURSDAY SYSTEM.
A COUPLE OF THESE WAVES HAVE OVERPERFORMED A BIT AS THEY CAN. ONE
THING THAT SHOULD KEEP THIS THU NIGHT/FRI SYSTEM FROM OVERPERFORMING
WILL BE LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAINING DUE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND
COLD POOL ALOFT STAYING NORTH OF THE AREA. THE LAKESHORE IS LIKELY
TO SEE THE HIGHEST TOTALS AS LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIKELY WITH
850 MB TEMPS AROUND -8C. AGAIN, THE INVERSION SHOULD KEEP IT FROM
GETTING OUT OF HAND.
- COLD THIS WEEKEND THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE STRONG WAVE AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, WE WILL
SEE ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR DROP IN OVER THE AREA. WE SEE A
TEMPORARY RETURN OF THE FLOW FROM THE ARCTIC VS. THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES LIKE THIS WEEK. A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DROP DOWN AND SUPPLY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR.
LAKE EFFECT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR THIS WEEKEND EVEN
WITH THE COLD AIR COMING BACK IN. THIS IS BECAUSE THIS AIR MASS IS
MORE SHALLOW AS IS TYPICAL AS WE GET TO FEBRUARY, AND THE DEEP COLD
AND CYCLONIC FLOW BYPASSES US THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. SFC RIDGING
BUILDS IN, KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA DRY THIS WEEKEND.
WE WILL NOTICE THE BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE TAKE SHAPE ON MONDAY,
THAT IS LIKELY TO LAST MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN CHANGE IS
FACILITATED BY STRONG PACIFIC JET ENERGY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
U.S. COAST. THIS IN TURN PUSHES THE RIDGE TOWARD US, AND WE SEE
RETURN FLOW SET UP FROM THE SW ON MONDAY, ADVECTING WARMER TEMPS UP
OVER THE AREA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 641 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
WE ARE STARTING OUT THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CEILINGS DOWN ALONG
THE I-94 CORRIDOR TERMINALS, VFR ALONG THE I-96 CORRIDOR, AND
MVFR NORTH OF I-96. THE NORTHERN MVFR CONDITIONS ARE IN THE WAKE
OF A WEAK FRONT DROPPING THROUGH. THE WINDS ARE SHIFTING FROM SW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TO NW BEHIND IT ALONG WITH THE MVFR
CONDITIONS. WE EXPECT THE MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST MOST OF THE
DAY, ALONG WITH FLURRIES THAT SHOULD NOT BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN
BELOW MVFR. THE WIND WILL CHANGE THIS EVENING TO BECOME FROM THE
NE. THIS IS LIKELY TO LIFT CEILINGS A BIT TO VFR.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
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