963
FXUS63 KGRR 040508
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1208 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME SNOW IN MASON AND OCEANA COUNTIES ALONG THE LAKESHORE
- NEXT ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SNOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
- COLD THIS WEEKEND THE MODERATING TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
- SOME SNOW IN MASON AND OCEANA COUNTIES ALONG THE LAKESHORE
OVERALL OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT FLURRIES MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITHIN THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW THIS
EVENING AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
CREATING A NARROW BAND OF SNOW. THIS BAND OF SNOW MAY CLIP
PORTIONS OF MASON AND OCEANA COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
PROVIDING A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
- NEXT ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SNOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
AS THIS LIFT EXITS MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW AND WE'LL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING BACK THE DEEPER
MOISTURE FOR SNOWFALL THROUGH THE REST OF FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LARGELY BE 2
INCHES OR LESS WITH AREAS NORTHWEST OF GRAND RAPIDS HAVING THE
BETTER CHANCES (20 TO 40 PERCENT) OF SEEING 2-3 INCHES.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID 30S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.
- COLD THIS WEEKEND THE MODERATING TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -18 C WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND DRIER
AIR WILL NOT BRING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S AND LOWS AROUND ZERO AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS DIP
IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WE GRADUALLY WARM UP SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK WHERE WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING
AGAIN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW MUCH OF LOWER MICHIGAN UNDER MVFR CLOUDS BUT
FOR SOME PATCHY CLEARING. THESE CLOUDS ARE PERSISTING UNDER WEAK
NORTH FLOW AND MOISTURE ADDED BY THE GREAT LAKES. VERY LIGHT SNOW
FLURRIES ARE OCCURRING ESPECIALLY AND GRR AND MKG ALL THE WAY
NORTH TO LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE IS NOT MUCH INDICATION THAT THE
BROADER WEATHER PATTERN WILL SUPPRESS THESE CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY.
IN GENERAL, MODELS WERE UNDERDOING THE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING.
LATEST SHORT-TERM MODELS, INCLUDING THE HREF, MAINTAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF
IS BROADLY PAINTING A TRACE OF PRECIP ALL DAY TOO, TO SUPPORT THE
IDEA OF JUST VERY LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES PERSISTING. THIS IS
CERTAINLY THE PATTERN AND THE TIME OF YEAR TO BE PESSIMISTIC WITH
THE CLOUD FORECAST.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...CAS
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