100
FXUS63 KGRR 050511
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1211 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TWO ROUNDS OF SNOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN BETWEEN. WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 30-40 MPH FRIDAY.
- NOTABLY COLDER WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
- MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
- TWO ROUNDS OF SNOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN BETWEEN. WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 30-40 MPH FRIDAY.
LIGHT FLURRIES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GRR
VAD WINDS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY IS QUITE SHALLOW WITH CLOUDS BETWEEN
2-5KFT. FLURRIES BECOME WIDELY SCATTERED OR TAPER OFF THIS EVENING
AS THE DGZ DECOUPLES FROM THE CLOUD LAYER.
THE FIRST MORE NOTABLE PERIOD OF SNOW ARRIVES THURSDAY MORNING AS A
MID-LEVEL WAVE CROSSES THE REGION. WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 7-10C
RANGE, LAKE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD BE MINIMAL, WITH ANY ENHANCEMENT
CONFINED TO THE LAKESHORE NORTH OF MKG. IT WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS FOR
THE LOW-LEVELS TO SATURATE, WITH A 6-9 HOUR WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW
BEFORE THE DGZ DESATURATES IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONCERN THAT ONCE THE DGZ DESATURATES MID
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WE SIT BETWEEN SHORTWAVES, ANY LOW-LEVEL
FORCING COULD LEAD TO FREEZING DRIZZLE BETWEEN MID AFTERNOON AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT IN
FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURING, HOWEVER GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SETUP, TRENDS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE.
AFTER 1AM OR SO FRIDAY MORNING, THE NEXT MID-LEVEL WAVE ARRIVES,
RESATURATING THE DGZ UNTIL THE SNOW WINDS DOWN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
NON-ZERO (BUT VERY LOW) CHANCE OF FZDZ EXISTS AS THE SNOW WINDS DOWN
AS WELL. OVERALL LOOK FOR SNOW TOTALS OF 1-3" WITH ISOLATED TOTALS
TO 4" POSSIBLE NORTH OF I96 AND WEST OF US131.
THE OTHER THING OF NOTE IS THAT COLD AIR ADVECTION AFTER FRIDAY'S
FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE
APPROACHING SURFACE RIDGING, WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY. WINDS
OVER 30 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH A 10-20% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 40 MPH.
- NOTABLY COLDER WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
A MID-LEVEL WAVE EJECTING INTO THE PARENT TROUGHING TO OUR EAST
FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPS ARRIVING ACROSS THE
REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET FROM NEAR -7C THURSDAY NIGHT TO
NEAR -18C FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SEND LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
MORNING TO NEAR ZERO, ESPECIALLY EAST OF US131. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY WIND TO SEND WIND CHILLS INTO THE -10S F, THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
NORMALLY, 850MB TEMPS THIS COLD WOULD REINVIGORATE THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW MACHINE, HOWEVER DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LIMIT SYNOPTIC SUPPORT
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. IN ADDITION, NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
WHATEVER CAN DEVELOP NEAR THE LAKESHORE. WE DO SEE A SHORTWAVE
ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY, HOWEVER SYNOPTIC SUPPORT REMAINS LESS THAN
IDEAL, AND LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN MI WILL BE
LACKLUSTER. NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OUT OF THIS WAVE
GIVEN THOSE REASONS.
- MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK
LONGWAVE RIDGING BEGINS MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE SWITCH INTO OUR AIRMASS SOURCE REGION BEING MARITIME POLAR
FROM THE PACNW, AND SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS NEAR 40 ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 5-10 ABOVE ZERO. A LOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE PLAINS BRINGS PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1211 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
MVFR CEILINGS BLANKET A SIZABLE PORTION OF THE AREA THIS MORNING,
WITH A FEW AREAS OF CLEARING. CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TEMPORARILY
LATE THIS MORNING IN SOME LOCATIONS PRIOR OR AROUND THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION, BUT MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY THEN DRIVES FLIGHT
CATEGORY WITH SNOW AND POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THOMAS
AVIATION...CAS
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