805
FXUS63 KGRR 050829
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF SNOW THROUGH FRI, WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE LIKELY TONIGHT
- MUCH COLDER THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT ALONG THE LAKESHORE
- QUIET EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 329 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
- PERIODS OF SNOW THROUGH FRI, WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE LIKELY TONIGHT
NOT MUCH GOING ON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING, WITH
SOMEWHAT IMPACTFUL WEATHER POISED TO MOVE IN THIS MORNING AND LINGER
INTO FRIDAY.
PLENTY OF LIGHT ECHOES ON THE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING
OVER MN AND WI, WITH LIMITED LIGHT SNOW REPORTS SO FAR. THE
EXPECTATION REMAINS THAT THE LIGHT SNOW WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS
THIS ENTIRE AREA MOVES TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS ALL AHEAD
OF A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MANITOBA THAT WILL CONTINUE DROPPING
SE AND STRENGTHENING OVER TIME TODAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
FEW HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
THE FAST NATURE OF THIS FIRST SYSTEM, ALONG WITH IT TAKING TIME TO
SATURATE THE LOW-MID LEVELS ON THE FRONT END, AND QUICK DEPARTURE OF
THE MOISTURE IN THE DGZ ON THE BACK END WILL LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED, THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS IN SW FLOW. INVERSION HEIGHTS
BEING RELATIVELY LOW HOWEVER WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH THE LAKE WILL
ENHANCE IT.
THE POTENTIALLY MOST IMPACTFUL PERIOD FROM TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
COULD ACTUALLY BE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE FORM OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
IT APPEARS WE LOSE THE DGZ LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND DON'T SATURATE
IT AGAIN UNTIL JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. THERE ARE SOME
MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE DGZ BECOMING
UNSATURATED LATER TODAY, AND WHETHER THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE
PRECIPITATION BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS. SOME SUBTLE HINTS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FREEZING MIST ARE FOUND IN SOME OF THE FOG/VISIBILITY PROGS.
ALSO, MOISTURE IS LOW ENOUGH IN THE COLUMN, AND PLENTY OF
OMEGA/FORCING IS PRESENT TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION CONTINUING. WE
WERE CLOSE TO PULLING THE TRIGGER ON AN ADVISORY FOR THIS, BUT
CONFIDENCE BEING JUST A TAD TOO LOW FOR US AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES
ULTIMATELY PREVENTED US FROM ISSUING THIS MORNING. THE DAY SHIFT CAN
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS AND PULL THE TRIGGER IF NEEDED.
ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE/MIST AROUND OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
BACK TO SNOW JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK FRIDAY. WE SEE DEEPER MOISTURE
RETURN WITH THE NEXT WAVE TO RESATURATE THE DGZ. THIS WAVE DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE A DIRECT HIT ON THE FORECAST AREA AS IT ENDS UP MOVING BY
TO OUR WEST. WE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY MORNING WITH BROAD
SCALE FORCING ACTING ON THE COLUMN OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. THEN, WE
WILL SEE AN ARCTIC FRONT DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA MID-DAY FRIDAY
AS A STRONGER UPPER WAVE WITH ORIGINS FROM THE ARCTIC MOVES BY TO
OUR NE. THIS FRONT COULD HAVE SOME BRIEF, YET INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS
WITH IT.
- MUCH COLDER THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT ALONG THE LAKESHORE
ONCE THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WE WILL SEE A
SURGE OF COLD AIR RETURN TO THE AREA. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL
ALSO TURN THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME FROM THE NNE. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL GET GOING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC
AIR, BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FOR
MULTIPLE REASONS. THOSE INCLUDE THE UPPER JET STAYING NE OF THE
AREA, INVERSION HEIGHTS DROPPING TO AROUND 5K FT, A LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE, AND THE FLOW BEING OFFSHORE IN NATURE.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST NEAR LITTLE AND BIG SABLE POINTS, AND
DOWN TOWARD EXTREME WESTERN VAN BUREN COUNTY, BUT MOST AREAS WILL
STAY DRY. IN FACT, SKIES ARE LIKELY TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT
FOR MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE
AREA, AND PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY.
- QUIET EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
WE WILL SEE THE NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BUT THIS WILL BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN MUCH OF
THE WINTER. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE WEATHER FOR
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE PLAINS. WE WILL HAVE HIGHER
HEIGHTS THAN WE HAVE SEEN MUCH OF THE WINTER. IN ADDITION, THE
PATTERN FAVORS THAT WE WILL SEE GENERALLY MORE AIR FROM THE PACIFIC,
AND THE LOWER LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH, BRINGING
WARMER AIR OVER THE AREA.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONCERN A MESSY SYSTEM COULD ARRIVE AROUND
WEDNESDAY WITH A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION. THIS HAS NOW BEEN
DELAYED BY MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS TO ARRIVE AFTER WEDNESDAY AS THE
WESTERN TROUGH TAKES TIME TO BECOME ESTABLISHED, AND SEND ENERGY UP
TOWARD THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1211 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
MVFR CEILINGS BLANKET A SIZABLE PORTION OF THE AREA THIS MORNING,
WITH A FEW AREAS OF CLEARING. CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TEMPORARILY
LATE THIS MORNING IN SOME LOCATIONS PRIOR OR AROUND THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION, BUT MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY THEN DRIVES FLIGHT
CATEGORY WITH SNOW AND POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NJJ
AVIATION...CAS
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