689
FXUS63 KGRR 061805
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
105 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZING DRIZZLE TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS A.M., THEN COLDER AND WINDY
- COLD THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
- MODERATING TEMPS NEXT WEEK WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
- FREEZING DRIZZLE TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS A.M., THEN COLDER AND WINDY
WE WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLIER, AND WILL KEEP IT AT LEAST THROUGH
THE MORNING COMMUTE THIS MORNING. AS EXPECTED, MOST AUTOMATED
OBSERVATIONS ARE SEEING REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND MIST. THIS
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LIGHT GLAZE FOR MOST AREAS, AND CAUSING SOME
IMPACTS ON THE ROADS. WE DO EXPECT THAT WE WILL BE GRADUALLY
SATURATING THE DGZ FROM WEST TO EAST, WHICH WILL CHANGE
PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW BY 12Z. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF SNOW ONCE IT TURNS OVER, BUT THIS WILL NOT HELP OUT THE
ROADS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
WE EXPECT THAT THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WITH THE SHORT WAVE TO OUR
SW WILL PRETTY MUCH EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING. THEN,
OUR ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO THE ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL BE DROPPING
DOWN THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING A RELATIVELY
NARROW BROKEN LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT. SOME OF THESE COULD BE
INTENSE DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF ARCTIC FRONTS LIKE THIS.
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL TURN WINDS FROM THE NW TO ALMOST FROM
DUE NORTH. THE IMPORTANCE OF THIS IS THAT AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TRY TO GET GOING, THEY WILL PRETTY MUCH AFFECT LAKE COUNTY
(DOWNWIND OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY), AND THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. WE DO
NOT ANTICIPATE NEEDING ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
EFFECT AS THE STRONGEST SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE OFFSHORE, AND EVEN
THOSE WILL NOT BE TOO STRONG WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS NO HIGHER THAN
5K FT AND ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT BUILDING IN.
- COLD THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL COME THROUGH TONIGHT AS 850
MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO BETWEEN -17 TO -20C. THIS COLD AIR WILL JUST
BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA, WITH THE COLDEST AIR BEING OVER THE NE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS, COMBINED WITH THE TERRAIN TOWARD
CLARE AND REED CITY, AND A LACK OF CLOUDS THERE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW
THEM TO BOTTOM OUT LIKELY NEAR 0F. A WIND REMAINING UP AROUND 10 MPH
THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL DRIVE DOWN WIND CHILLS DOWN TO AROUND -15F.
WITH THIS IN MIND, WE WILL MATCH UP WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES
WITH A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, MAINLY AFFECTING LITTLE AND BIG SABLE POINTS, AND
MAYBE FAR SW VAN BUREN COUNTY. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE BUILDING
AND SINKING, SO INTENSITY WILL ONLY DROP AFTER TODAY.
THE CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY HAVE GONE UP A BIT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALL ALONG, IT HAS LOOKED LIKE THAT A SHORT WAVE
WOULD MOVE THROUGH. IT JUST LOOKED LIKE IT WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND.
NOW, MAYBE A DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT.
- MODERATING TEMPS NEXT WEEK WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WE CONTINUE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE
TAKING PLACE NEXT WEEK WITH SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED SINCE MID-JANUARY. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS
STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE AREA AND BUILD UPPER HEIGHTS
A BIT. THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN HAS PERHAPS CHANGED A LITTLE
BIT. THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT A BIT AS IT APPROACHES WITH SHORT
WAVES RIDING OVER IT, AND THE UPPER TROUGH COMING IN OFF OF THE
PACIFIC BEING DELAYED A BIT.
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR AREA IS THAT THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEK. WE WILL LIKELY HAVE A
BAROCLINIC ZONE NEARBY, WAITING TO BE ACTED ON BY ANY WEAK IMPULSE
COMING THROUGH ALOFT. THIS IS MORE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM, SO IT
WILL BE A ZONE BETWEEN COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH AND MUCH WARMER TO
THE SOUTH. THIS IS A SETUP WHERE A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION COULD
BE POSSIBLE, DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE WAVES AND THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY.
THIS IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PUT ANY DETAIL IN AT THIS POINT FOR EXACT
TIMING, P-TYPE, ETC... WHAT IT DOES MEAN IS WE WILL HAVE LOTS OF
SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION, AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH VARIATIONS EXPECTED. ALL OF THESE DETAILS WILL BE WORKED
OUT OVER TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 103 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
AN ARCTIC FRONT IS POISED TO MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT AS SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP. GUSTY NORTH
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN DECREASE LATER THIS
EVENING. MIXED VFR/MVFR CEILING ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR MIZ039-040.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NJJ
AVIATION...04
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