038
FXUS63 KGRR 070454
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1154 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO TONIGHT WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS US10
AND THE LAKESHORE
- BRIEF BURST OF SNOW SUNDAY MORNING
- MODERATING TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
- WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO TONIGHT WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS US10
AND THE LAKESHORE
AN ARCTIC FRONT IS DROPPING ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 30-40 MPH. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE ONGOING
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. AS THE CORE OF COLD AIR ROTATES
THROUGH, LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
QUICK INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS THE LAKESHORE GIVEN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW REGIME, AS WELL AS ACROSS LAKE AND WESTERN
OSCEOLA COUNTIES BEING ON THE FRINGE OF A LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTED
BAND ACROSS APXS AREA. IN COLLABORATION WITH APX... TOTALS ARE
FORECAST TO BE TO LOW TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY ACROSS ANY OF OUR
COUNTIES, HOWEVER ISOLATED TOTALS AROUND 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY.
IN ADDITION, LOWS NEAR ZERO WITH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH TONIGHT WILL
SUPPORT A CHILLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. MORNING WIND
CHILLS WILL BE IN THE -5F TO -15F RANGE. THE COLDEST CONDITIONS
WILL BE ACROSS CLARE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES IN OUR TRADITIONAL COLD
HOLLOWS WHERE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT.
- BRIEF BURST OF SNOW SUNDAY MORNING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WIND DOWN SATURDAY WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ARRIVING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN AXIS OF 850MB FGEN CROSSING OVER THE AREA PROVIDING FORCING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A MID-LEVEL WAVE. GIVEN MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY
MARGINAL, SNOW TOTALS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA.
- MODERATING TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
THE PATTERN SHIFTS A BIT WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS MOVES INTO THE REGION. IT FLATTENS AS IT
DOES SO WITH SEVERAL RIDGE-RIDING SHORTWAVES. THERE WILL BE A STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS EARLY TO MID-NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVES WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW/LOWS ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, WHICH MAY BRING
US CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEK. DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING/POSITION OF THE SHORTWAVES/BAROCLINIC ZONE, MIXED
PRECIPITATION COULD BE IN PLAY AS REFLECTED IN THE EPS
PRECIPITATION TYPE PROGS. THIS FAR OUT, ANY SPECIFICS ON TIMING
AND PRECIPITATION TYPE ARE NOT POSSIBLE TO PROVIDE, BUT WILL BE
IRONED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO
NORMAL THAN RECENT WEEKS, EVEN ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT NEAR 40.
SCT
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
CEILINGS OR AT LEAST SCATTERED CLOUDS JUST ABOVE 3,000 FEET
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MORNING. DIURNAL HEATING AND
MIXING FROM MID DAY THROUGH AFTERNOON SATURDAY MAY YIELD MVFR
CEILINGS AROUND 3,000 FEET. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN, INCLUDING NEAR LDM, MKG, LWA.
ISOLATED FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING
AND DURING THE DAY.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ039-040.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THOMAS
AVIATION...CAS
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