843
FXUS63 KGRR 211940
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
240 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW SHOWERS INTO MONDAY, HEAVIEST ALONG THE LAKESHORE
- SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
- BRIEFLY MILDER AIR LATE WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
- SNOW SHOWERS INTO MONDAY, HEAVIEST ALONG THE LAKESHORE
WE WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MASON, OCEANA,
ALLEGAN, AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 1 PM
ON MONDAY.
NO MUCH GOING ON AT THE CURRENT TIME ACROSS THE AREA, WITH MAINLY
JUST A SHROUD OF LOW CLOUDS BLANKETING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE WAS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF OSCEOLA AND CLARE
COUNTIES EARLIER THAT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
WE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. A FAIRLY ROBUST VORT MAX CAN BE SEEN ON THE VISIBLE
AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON MOVING OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS FEATURE IS NOT DOING MUCH OVER THAT AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIMITED MOISTURE THERE. HOWEVER, AS THE FORCING
AND MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS FEATURE MOVES OVER OUR AREA,
IT WILL COMBINE WITH THE LAKE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE DGZ BECOMES MUCH BETTER SATURATED.
THE SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONE WILL NOT BE MUCH, GENERALLY
LESS THAN AN INCH FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER FOR
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKESHORE, WE WILL SEE SOME
BETTER ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. A SFC TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH THIS
EVENING, CHANGING THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM WESTERLY TO MORE
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING WITH COLDER
AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD IN THE WAKE OF THE
ILLINOIS WAVE MOVING THROUGH.
THE LAKE EFFECT DOES NOT LOOK TO GET TOO OUT OF HAND, BUT WE DO
EXPECT THAT PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE ENOUGH THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOCATIONS WILL SEE ENOUGH SNOW FOR SOME IMPACTS. HELPING THIS OUT
WILL BE A TRAJECTORY COMING IN OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR, PRE-
CONDITIONING THE BANDS.
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, BEFORE THE JET LIFTS NE OF THE AREA,
AND THE ENVIRONMENT BECOME QUITE HOSTILE FOR GOOD LAKE EFFECT.
OVERALL FROM LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, 4-7 INCHES
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET FOR THOSE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREAS. SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY. AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE, A GRAND
TOTAL OF ONLY AN INCH OR SO IS EXPECTED.
- SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
GIVING THE AREA A BREAK FROM THEM LIKELY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS THE
FLOW FROM THE NW WILL BE VERY PROGRESSIVE. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL
THEN ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE AIR AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT TOO COLD, BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS AS IF IT WILL
STAY JUST COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW.
SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH THIS
EVENT WITH NOT A GREAT DEAL OF ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. THE
AIR WITH THE SYSTEM IS NOT THAT COLD, AND THEREFORE THE INSTABILITY
OVER THE LAKE IS NOT THAT GREAT. IN ADDITION, SNOW RATIOS WILL BE
HELD DOWN DUE TO THE NOT-SO-COLD TEMPERATURES.
- BRIEFLY MILDER AIR LATE WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING ONE MORE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE
AREA IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN LACKING
ANY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST 24-48 HOURS. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE DETERMINISTIC RUN OF THE EURO HAD THE SFC LOW TRACKING
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER 24 HOURS AGO, AND BRINGING RAIN TO THE AREA.
NOW THE 12Z RUN IT HAS IT TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA, WHICH WOULD
BARELY CLIP THE SOUTHERN SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE GIST OF THIS IS THAT A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
THIS THU-FRI SYSTEM, AND NOT A LOT OF STOCK CAN BE PUT INTO ANY
SOLUTION YET.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
BANDS OF SNOW RETURN THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS DROPPING AFTER
03Z. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. CIGS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW IFR BY 06Z WITH PERIODS OF
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IFR AND LOWER
VISIBILITIES (IE. < 1SM) WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER BANDS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE, AFFECTING MKG. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR
CEILINGS WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z TO 12Z HAVE IFR CIGS THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME THOUGH LATEST MODELS HAVE ACTUALLY MOVED THE WORST VSBYS
CONDITIONS LATER SUNDAY MORNING, AFTER 13Z. CURRENTLY HAVE PROB30
GROUPS REPRESENTING THIS POTENTIAL BUT WILL REFINE MORE AS EVENT
COMES CLOSER. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST ALONG THE
LAKESHORE THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE GET UPWARDS OF AN INCH
ACCUMULATION AT GRR BY SUNDAY EVENING.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY FOR MIZ037-043-064-071.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NJJ
AVIATION...CERU
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