831
FXUS63 KGRR 220754
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
254 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW SHOWERS TODAY INTO MONDAY MORNING
- LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
- ADDITIONAL SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
- SNOW SHOWERS TODAY INTO MONDAY MORNING
MID LEVEL WV IMAGERY OVERNIGHT NICELY SHOWS A 500MB LOW MOVING
ACROSS LOWER MI. THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH
WILL HELP GET DEEP NW FLOW GOING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ALSO GET
THE LAKE AGGREGATE SURFACE LOW OVER LAKE HURON TO START DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST FINALLY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE PER NAM/RAP
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH DEPTH OVER 20K FT AT TIMES, LONGEST-LASTING
ALONG THE LAKESHORE INTO TONIGHT. THAT SAID, LOW LEVEL AND DGZ
OMEGAS LOOK MODEST FOR THE MOST PART AND FAIRLY SPREAD OUT OVER
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE FOCUSING ALONG THE
LAKESHORE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MORE SUBSTANTIAL LIFT LOOKS
TO SET UP NEAR AND SOUTH OF SOUTH HAVEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
TOWARD BENTON HARBOR. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY
0.5"-2.0" OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AND 2"-4" (LOCALLY HIGHER) WITHIN
THE ADVISORY. FACTOR IN WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH AND THERE WILL BE
SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS AT TIMES WITH SLICK ROADS AND REDUCED SPEEDS.
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION
STAYING NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TODAY.
- LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
ECMWF/GEM/GFS GUIDANCE COMING IN OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
CLIPPER SYSTEM IMPACTING MICHIGAN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY. HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED
GIVEN THE QUICK HITTING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, GENERALLY 1"-2"
ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-96 WITH SOME 3" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
CLOSER TO US 10. HOWEVER, IT IS NOTED THAT THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE
COMING IN WITH MUCH COLDER 850MB TEMPS THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY
COMPARED TO PRIOR RUNS, COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS CLIPPER WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON PROVIDED ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. THUS SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT NOT CERTAIN YET. HIGHS WEDNESDAY MAY OCCUR EARLY ON
(LOW/MID 30S AT BEST) WITH TEMPS FALLING DURING THE DAY INTO THE
20S MOST LIKELY.
- ADDITIONAL SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY
ECE/GEFS GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THURSDAY WITH MEAN
500MB HEIGHTS/VORTICITY INDICATIVE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE REGION. BOTH ENSEMBLE SUITES SHOW 80-100%
PROBABILITIES FOR 850MB TEMPS TO STAY AT OR BELOW 0C ACROSS OUR
REGION, WITH RELATIVELY HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR TEMPS TO STAY NEAR
OR BELOW 32 DURING THE DAY. A BIG QUESTION MARK IS SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE REGION, AND IF SO HOW FAR NORTH DOES IT GET.
SOME ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS US DRY WITH NO SURFACE LOW, BUT BOTH
THE ECE/GEFS ENSEMBLE SUITES INDICATE A 30-40% PROBABILITY FOR 3"
OR MORE AND A 10-20% PROBABILITY FOR 6" OR MORE. THERE IS
CERTAINLY SOME BUST POTENTIAL WITH THURSDAY'S FORECAST GIVEN THE
HIGH DEGREE OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD. THE MAIN POINT HERE IS THAT THERE
IS A FAIRLY HIGH CEILING TO THE SNOW AMOUNTS WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE (IE. 90TH PERCENTILE SNOW AMOUNTS ARE 5"-8"), SO WHILE
CURRENT ODDS DON'T YET FAVOR AN IMPACTFUL SNOW EVENT THE TRENDS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1156 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
LIGHT SNOW WILL BRING A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL SHIFT WESTWARD TOWARDS LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH THE SNOW AND IFR ON SUNDAY AS WINDS GO FROM WEST TO
NORTHWEST. THERE WILL BE SOME BLOWING SNOW AS WELL ON SUNDAY AS
WINDS GUST OVER 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ037-043-064-
071.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HOVING
AVIATION...OSTUNO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page