768
FXUS63 KGRR 231752
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1252 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT ENDING, THEN DRYING OUT TODAY
- LIGHT SNOW LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
- THAWING OUT FRIDAY/SATURDAY BEFORE COLD AGAIN
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
- LAKE EFFECT ENDING, THEN DRYING OUT TODAY
SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL CLIPPING WESTERN MASON, OCEANA, AND VAN
BUREN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z NAM3KM HAS HAD A SUPERIOR
HANDLING ON THE LOCATION OF THE DOMINANT BAND WHILE THE 00Z HRRR
HAS BEEN TOO FAR OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS GOING ACROSS
THESE AREAS, PARTICULARLY WESTERN VAN BUREN, THROUGH EARLY
MORNING WHERE ANOTHER 1" OR SLIGHTLY MORE IS POSSIBLE. SOME SNOW
COVERED ROADS REMAIN POSSIBLE AND THUS WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
ELSEWHERE, EITHER DRY CONDITIONS OR LIGHT FLURRIES ARE OCCURRING.
THE TREND WILL BE FOR A DRYING OUT REGION-WIDE AS THE LAKE EFFECT
SUBSIDES.
- LIGHT SNOW LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE STATE, WITH THE BULK OF THE SNOW IMPACTS LIKELY TO
STAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOWER MI. GIVEN A SURFACE LOW
TRACK ACROSS THE U.P. INTO THE STRAITS, THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO NEAR AND NORTH OF U.S. 10. HOWEVER, LIGHT SNOW
SHOULD EXTEND SOUTH TO THE I-96 CORRIDOR LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR 1"-3" NORTH OF M-46
WITH 0.5"-1.0" FROM I-96 TO M-46, THEN VERY LITTLE SOUTH OF I-96.
WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY HAVE A NARROW WINDOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE CLIPPER, MAINLY
FROM I-96 TO THE NORTH. NAM12 GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SATURATION OF
THE DGZ WITH -2 TO -5 UBAR/S OF LIFT FROM 09Z-15Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING. THIS MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION IN
SPOTS MID TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY WITH A DECREASE IN SHOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS FAVORING SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTHERN IL/IN ON THURSDAY WITH MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
CLUSTERING IN THAT REGION. AS A RESULT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW
WOULD BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MI INTO INDIANA. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS MAY CLIP THE REGION, SO WE'LL CONTINUE TO WATCH
TRENDS.
- THAWING OUT FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING DOWN AGAIN THIS WEEKEND
WE'LL ADD 10 TO 15 DEGREES TO THE THERMOMETER ON FRIDAY AS HIGHS
RECOVER INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND CONDITIONS THAW OUT ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS THAW LOOKS TO BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY
SWEEP THROUGH ON SATURDAY AS ZONAL FLOW TRIES TO SET IN WITH A
SHARP 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT POTENTIALLY SETTING UP OVER THE
REGION. IF WE STAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE HIGHS
MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
WHILE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THESE TEMPERATURES,
QPF SPREAD IS QUITE HIGH WITH A VARIETY OF OUTCOMES POSSIBLE
INCLUDING SNOW AND/OR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED TAFS.
ESTIMATED PROBABILITIES FOR THE FOLLOWING TO OCCUR AT ANY TERMINAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...
IFR RESTRICTIONS: 5 PERCENT
FUEL ALTERNATE CEILINGS: 20 PERCENT (BEST CHANCES AT MKG)
INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS (GREATER THAN 2000 FT) WILL OCCUR AT
ALL TERMINALS, WITH SCATTERED CONDITIONS QUITE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AT THE TERMINALS FARTHER INLAND (THAT IS, GRR, BTL,
JXN, LAN).
ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY MENTIONED AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS, GUSTY
WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY SUBSIDE IN THE 02Z TIMEFRAME.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HOVING
AVIATION...TJT
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