239
FXUS63 KGRR 241751
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1251 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT; LIGHT LAKE EFFECT WEDNESDAY
- MAINLY DRY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, POSSIBLE WEEKEND SNOW SHOWERS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
- SNOW THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT; LIGHT LAKE EFFECT WEDNESDAY
A QUICK HITTING CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK
BURST OF SNOW IMPACTING AREAS MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-96. THIS
WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN THE 4PM-9PM WINDOW. BOTH THE NAM12 AND
RAP13 ARE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ AHEAD OF THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW NORTH OF OUR
REGION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME SUBSATURATED AIR BELOW THE
DGZ SO SOME LOSS OF SNOW INTENSITY SHOULD OCCUR AS THE BANDS MOVE
THROUGH, BUT NEVERTHELESS THIS WILL BE A DECENT BURST OF SNOW OVER
A COMPRESSED TIME PERIOD ALLOWING FOR SOME TRAVEL INCONVENIENCES
TO POTENTIALLY DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.5" NEAR I-96 AND 1"-3" ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI
ARE STILL ANTICIPATED. SLICK TRAVEL MAY DEVELOP BY THE EVENING
COMMUTE OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF A MKG TO
RQB TO MOP LINE.
HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE NAM3KM AND HRRR SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE 06Z-18Z WEDNESDAY WINDOW IN THE
MIDST OF MEAN 1000-850MB WNW FLOW. FOR EXAMPLE, NAM3KM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AT RQB SHOW LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS (~5K FT) BUT TOTAL
SATURATION OF THE DGZ WITH SOME LIFT PRESENT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER 0.5"-1.0" IN WNW FLOW LOCATIONS.
CURRENT POPS EVEN WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE ARE PROBABLY NOT HIGH
ENOUGH, SO 30-40% COVERAGE MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED WITH
SUBSEQUENT UPDATES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
- MAINLY DRY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, POSSIBLE WEEKEND SNOW SHOWERS
THERE IS NOT ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
A PRECIPITATION RISK THURSDAY WITH WEAK UPPER TROUGHING SWINGING
THROUGH. SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT THAT
MAY BE ABOUT IT. ABRUPT 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY AS
WE TRANSITION FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. 850MB
TEMPS WARM FROM AROUND -10C THURSDAY TO +4C FRIDAY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO POTENTIALLY LOW 50S FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS SATURDAY AS THERE ARE VARIED MODEL
SOLUTIONS REGARDING PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. DAYTIME HIGHS COULD
TOUCH THE 40S BUT IT'S ALSO PLAUSIBLE THAT COLDER READINGS IN THE
MID 20S TO LOW 30S MAY OCCUR IF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HAPPENS
EARLIER IN THE DAY. THERE IS A RISK FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
WEEKEND BUT TIMING AND INTENSITY ARE IN QUESTION. CURRENT ECE
PROBABILITIES FOR 1" OR MORE OF SNOW IN THE 24HR PERIOD ENDING
18Z SUNDAY ARE ABOUT 40%. SO, SOME SUPPORT IS THERE BUT NOT A
MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS YET.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
KEY CHANGES:
- REFINED TIMING OF NARROW SNOW BAND PASSING EARLY TONIGHT
- ADDED LLWS TO NORTHERN TERMINALS AFTER SNOW BAND PASSES
- WENT SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH CIGS/VSBYS AT AZO/BTL/JXN
A NARROW BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST WI AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE
LOOKS MORE POTENT THAN BEFORE, SO WE ARE INTRODUCING EITHER TEMPO
OR PROB30 OF WHAT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS FOR
OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HOW MUCH CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AT TERMINALS
FARTHER NORTH (MKG...GRR...LAN) VERSUS TO THE SOUTH (AZO...BTL...
JXN) AND HAVE ATTEMPTED TO REPRESENT THAT HERE.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE GUSTY EVEN AT THE SURFACE, BUT
LLWS NONETHELESS LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY AT LEAST EARLY ON WITH
INDICATIONS OF A 40-50 KNOT WIND SURGE NOT FAR ABOVE THE SURFACE
AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT.
CONDITIONS COULD QUICKLY IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MVFR
CEILINGS ABOVE FUEL ALTERNATES, BUT CEILINGS MAY EVENTUALLY DROP
BELOW 2000 FT AGL AREAWIDE AS COLDER AND LAKE MOISTENED AIR WORKS
INTO THE REGION, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. THESE FINAL DETAILS HAVE
NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS FOR THE SAKE OF BREVITY.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HOVING
AVIATION...TJT
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