428
FXUS63 KGRR 241900
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
200 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- QUICK ROUND OF SNOW THIS EVENING
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
- MOSTLY DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, SNOW POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
- QUICK ROUND OF SNOW THIS EVENING
THE FEATURE TO WATCH FOR THIS EVENING IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
WISCONSIN. CURRENTLY SNOW AHEAD OF A FRONT IS DROPPING
VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE. SNOWFALL RATES AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN
INCH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS BAND ALONG AND NORTH OF M-20 AND
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH PER HOUR FURTHER SOUTH. PROBABILITIES
OF SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH OR MORE ARE AROUND 40 PERCENT ALONG
AND NORTH OF US-10. TIMING WOULD BRING THIS ROUND OF SNOW INTO
THE LUDINGTON AREA AROUND 5PM THEN EXPANDING SOUTHEAST TOWARD A
HOLLAND TO GRAND RAPIDS TO MOUNT PLEASANT LINE AROUND 7PM AND INTO
THE JACKSON AREA ROUND 9PM. SNOWFALL WILL LAST AROUND 1-3 HOURS
OVER ANY ONE LOCATION. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-96 ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE AN INCH OR LESS WITH AREAS FURTHER NORTH IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD GUST TO 40 MPH OR HIGHER WHICH
WOULD CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. QUICK REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY, ACCUMULATIONS, ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
COULD CAUSE IMPACTS TO THE EVENING COMMUTE, WITH THE HIGHEST RISK
ALONG AND NORTH OF M-20.
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITHIN THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BRING THE ROUND OF SNOW THIS
EVENING, ANOTHER ROUND OF POSITIVE VORTICTY ADVECTION WILL SWING
THROUGH WITH THE COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN OVER THE LAKE. DELTA TS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS PAIRED WITH MOISTURE IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
MAINLY NORTH OF I-96. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL PREVENT SHOWERS FROM
BECOMING DEEPER, BUT STILL EXPECTING SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING WITH ANOTHER INCH OR LESS OF SNOW WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTH OF US-10 AND WEST OF US-131.
- MOSTLY DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, SNOW POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
OUTSIDE OF THE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING,
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND WARMER EACH DAY WITH MID TO UPPER 40S EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH THE FRONT. THIS WEEKEND WE'LL BE ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF A COUPLE SYSTEMS THAT COULD BRING SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. 24 HOUR PROBABILITIES
OF AN INCH OR MORE FOR SATURDAY AFTER 30 TO 40 PERCENT AND ON
SUNDAY 20 TO 30 PERCENT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
KEY CHANGES:
- REFINED TIMING OF NARROW SNOW BAND PASSING EARLY TONIGHT
- ADDED LLWS TO NORTHERN TERMINALS AFTER SNOW BAND PASSES
- WENT SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH CIGS/VSBYS AT AZO/BTL/JXN
A NARROW BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST WI AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE
LOOKS MORE POTENT THAN BEFORE, SO WE ARE INTRODUCING EITHER TEMPO
OR PROB30 OF WHAT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS FOR
OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HOW MUCH CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AT TERMINALS
FARTHER NORTH (MKG...GRR...LAN) VERSUS TO THE SOUTH (AZO...BTL...
JXN) AND HAVE ATTEMPTED TO REPRESENT THAT HERE.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE GUSTY EVEN AT THE SURFACE, BUT
LLWS NONETHELESS LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY AT LEAST EARLY ON WITH
INDICATIONS OF A 40-50 KNOT WIND SURGE NOT FAR ABOVE THE SURFACE
AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT.
CONDITIONS COULD QUICKLY IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MVFR
CEILINGS ABOVE FUEL ALTERNATES, BUT CEILINGS MAY EVENTUALLY DROP
BELOW 2000 FT AGL AREAWIDE AS COLDER AND LAKE MOISTENED AIR WORKS
INTO THE REGION, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. THESE FINAL DETAILS HAVE
NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS FOR THE SAKE OF BREVITY.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...TJT
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