976
FXUS63 KGRR 242344
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
644 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- QUICK ROUND OF SNOW THIS EVENING
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
- MOSTLY DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, SNOW POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
- QUICK ROUND OF SNOW THIS EVENING
THE FEATURE TO WATCH FOR THIS EVENING IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
WISCONSIN. CURRENTLY SNOW AHEAD OF A FRONT IS DROPPING
VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE. SNOWFALL RATES AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN
INCH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS BAND ALONG AND NORTH OF M-20 AND
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH PER HOUR FURTHER SOUTH. PROBABILITIES
OF SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH OR MORE ARE AROUND 40 PERCENT ALONG
AND NORTH OF US-10. TIMING WOULD BRING THIS ROUND OF SNOW INTO
THE LUDINGTON AREA AROUND 5PM THEN EXPANDING SOUTHEAST TOWARD A
HOLLAND TO GRAND RAPIDS TO MOUNT PLEASANT LINE AROUND 7PM AND INTO
THE JACKSON AREA ROUND 9PM. SNOWFALL WILL LAST AROUND 1-3 HOURS
OVER ANY ONE LOCATION. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-96 ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE AN INCH OR LESS WITH AREAS FURTHER NORTH IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD GUST TO 40 MPH OR HIGHER WHICH
WOULD CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. QUICK REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY, ACCUMULATIONS, ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
COULD CAUSE IMPACTS TO THE EVENING COMMUTE, WITH THE HIGHEST RISK
ALONG AND NORTH OF M-20.
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITHIN THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BRING THE ROUND OF SNOW THIS
EVENING, ANOTHER ROUND OF POSITIVE VORTICTY ADVECTION WILL SWING
THROUGH WITH THE COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN OVER THE LAKE. DELTA TS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS PAIRED WITH MOISTURE IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
MAINLY NORTH OF I-96. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL PREVENT SHOWERS FROM
BECOMING DEEPER, BUT STILL EXPECTING SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING WITH ANOTHER INCH OR LESS OF SNOW WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTH OF US-10 AND WEST OF US-131.
- MOSTLY DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, SNOW POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
OUTSIDE OF THE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING,
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND WARMER EACH DAY WITH MID TO UPPER 40S EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH THE FRONT. THIS WEEKEND WE'LL BE ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF A COUPLE SYSTEMS THAT COULD BRING SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. 24 HOUR PROBABILITIES
OF AN INCH OR MORE FOR SATURDAY AFTER 30 TO 40 PERCENT AND ON
SUNDAY 20 TO 30 PERCENT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 644 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
KEY CHANGES:
- PUSHED BACK TIMING OF SNOW BAND SLIGHTLY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
- LESS AGGRESSIVE MENTION OF LLWS OVERNIGHT
- ADDED PROB30 OF MVFR SNOW MAINLY AFTER 12Z
A NARROW BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
HAS ENTERED NORTHERN LOWER MI WHERE IFR AND EVEN LIFR VISIBILITIES
ARE BEING REPORTED. THE BAND EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
LAKE MICHIGAN. VISIBILITIES IN WISCONSIN IN THE MILWAUKEE AREA
UNDER THE BAND HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 2 TO 3 MILES. BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS UPSTREAM, MODEL GUIDANCE, AND EXPECTED REINFORCEMENT FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN, DID INCLUDE 1 1/2SM VISIBILITY TEMPO GROUPS FOR
MKG AND GRR. IT APPEARS THE BAND WILL BECOME A BIT MORE DIFFUSE AS
IT PROGRESSES ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MI.
CEILINGS IN THE WAKE OF THE SNOW BAND ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN. SOME
GUIDANCE RAISES THEM TO VFR LEVELS WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE RETURNS A
2000-3000 FT AGL BKN/OVC LAYER AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z. THE
LOWER CEILINGS SCENARIO IS PROBABLY MORE PLAUSIBLE, WITH FUEL
ALTERNATE CEILINGS EVEN POSSIBLE IF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP AND STAY ORGANIZED. THIS EVOLUTION IS TOO
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN A PROB30
MENTION.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...TJT
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