451
FXUS63 KGRR 260519
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1219 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
- WARM FRIDAY; SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY
- NEXT WEEK: COLD EARLY, THEN WARMING
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
- LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
850MB AND WATER TEMPERATURE DELTA T'S REMAIN IN THE UPPER TEENS,
PAIRED WITH DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE EXPECT FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN THIS
EVENING. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY. WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS, CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND -11 WITH A WEAK INVERSION EXPECT LOW TO DROP INTO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.
THURSDAY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION.
SOUNDINGS SHOW THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME FLURRIES
AND LIGHT SNOW. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
- WARM FRIDAY; SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY
WARM AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BRING MILD
CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A SLIGHT SIGNAL FOR DRIZZLE AS SEEN IN
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM AND THE LOW LEVELS DRY
OUT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY SPARK SOME
SHOWERS TOWARD THE 127 CORRIDOR AS THE BETTER MOISTURE BUILDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE SNOW CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS THAT DEVELOPS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TO OUR SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN A TIGHTENING TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.
NBM PROBABILITIES ONLY SHOW A 20 PERCENT CHANCES OF 2 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. 1 INCH OR MORE PROBABILITIES ARE
IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE PEAKING ALONG THE I-96 CORRIDOR.
OVERALL NOT EXPECTING HIGH SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH THIS QUICK HITTING
EVENT.
- NEXT WEEK: COLD EARLY, THEN WARMING
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN COULD BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF ANOTHER LIGHT
SNOW SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY (20 TO 30 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30 AND THEN WARM
EACH DAY REACHING INTO THE 40S BY MID WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES COULD
CAUSE A POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX (20 TO 30 PERCENT) PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND TEMPERATURE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
CEILINGS AROUND 3,000 FEET CONTINUE TO ERODE TONIGHT AND ARE NOW
MAINLY NORTH OF RQB-AMN. THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE VFR WITH A FEW
LAYERS OF CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET DRIFTING THROUGH. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...CAS
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