276
FXUS63 KGRR 260740
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
240 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY LATE SATURDAY
- MAINLY DRY SUNDAY-TUESDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
- PATTERN CHANGE COMING MID NEXT WEEK WITH WARM AND WET CONDITIONS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
- WINDY FRIDAY THEN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY LATE SATURDAY
WE HAVE A QUIET PERIOD ON TAP FOR TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM
WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IS A DISTANT PAST ALREADY. WE ARE
QUITE COLD THIS MORNING WITH THE CLOUDS HAVING MOVED OUT AND LIGHT
WINDS IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE COLD POOL ALOFT HAS
MOVED OUT AND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER ABOVE FREEZING ONCE
AGAIN TODAY.
THE MAIN FEATURE THROUGH THIS QUIET PERIOD WILL BE WINDS RAMPING UP
BEGINNING A BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND PEAKING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. WE HAVE A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
ONTARIO LATER TODAY, AND AGAIN FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM FRIDAY WILL HAVE
QUITE THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE CENTER PRESSURE OF THE
LOW IN THE 980S.
NO PRECIPITATION TO SPEAK OF FOR OUR AREA WITH THE SYSTEMS WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA, AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW COMING IN OFF OF THE
PLAINS. IN FACT, THERE IS CONCERN THAT WE COULD SEE THE AIR MASS END
UP QUITE DRY WITH THE ORIGIN OF THE AIR BEING DRY DOWNSLOPING OFF OF
THE ROCKIES. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD EQUAL A FAIRLY MILD DAY ON
FRIDAY, BEFORE COOLER AIR COMES IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND
A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE NEXT MAIN CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED
AROUND LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF A BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW. WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT A SFC LOW OF ANY SORTS, BUT MAINLY
AN ENHANCED AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE TRAVERSING THE AREA. THE
MOISTURE WITH THIS IS NOT VERY RICH WITH NO REAL GOOD SOURCE OF
MOISTURE COMING INTO IT WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NE. IT IS
ALL BEING GENERATED VIA THE JET FORCING WITH A COUPLED UPPER JET.
THIS LOOKS TO BE AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST.
- MAINLY DRY SUNDAY-TUESDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
THE FRESH LIGHT SNOW PACK AND CONTINUING FLOW FROM THE NNE WILL
BRING ANOTHER COLD DAY ON SUNDAY AFTER A COUPLE OF MILD DAYS BEFORE
THE SAT SYSTEM. 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO -13 TO -15C
MIDDAY SUNDAY BEFORE STARTING TO RECOVER.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WE WILL SEE THE PATTERN SET UP SUCH THAT
WE WILL END UP BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN BRANCHES OF THE UPPER JET. THIS
WILL KEEP THE DEEP COLD AIR WITH THE POLAR JET WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. THE SUBTROPICAL BRANCH OF THE JET WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, BUT COULD INCH UP FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO POSSIBLY
CLIP THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
TYPES MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC
RIDGE INITIALLY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME FROM THE NE AGAIN
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS, AND WILL EAT AWAY
AT THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION.
- PATTERN CHANGE COMING MID NEXT WEEK WITH WARM AND WET CONDITIONS
THE MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE
WEEK LOOK TO TRANSITION TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WETTER
CONDITIONS BEGINNING AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY.
WE WILL SEE TWO SYSTEMS COME IN FROM THE PACIFIC THAT WILL DRIVE
THIS PATTERN CHANGE. THE FIRST ONE COMES INTO THE DESERT SW EARLY IN
THE WEEK, AND MEANDERS THERE FOR A BIT. THEN, AND MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE TROUGH/LOW MOVES ONSHORE WEDNESDAY. THE INITIAL
LOW WILL GET PUSHED OUT, AND WILL LIFT MORE TO THE NE AS THE LONGER
WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN.
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR SW LOWER IS THAT WE WILL SEE THE DEEP FLOW
BECOME FROM THE SW, WHICH IS ONE OF OUR WETTEST FLOWS. THE LOW
LIFTING NE WILL HAVE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW COMING OUT OF THE GULF AHEAD
OF IT, AND AIMED TOWARD OUR AREA AS EARLY AS LATE WEDNESDAY. MANY
TIMES, THESE TYPES OF PATTERNS END UP BEING DELAYED BY THE PATTERN
HAVING TO TAKE SHAPE. THE FLOW FROM THE SW WILL BRING MUCH WARMER
AIR UP OVER THE AREA BEGINNING NEXT WEDNESDAY AND MORE SO JUST AFTER
THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
CEILINGS AROUND 3,000 FEET CONTINUE TO ERODE TONIGHT AND ARE NOW
MAINLY NORTH OF RQB-AMN. THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE VFR WITH A FEW
LAYERS OF CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET DRIFTING THROUGH. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NJJ
AVIATION...CAS
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