524
FXUS63 KGRR 261944
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
244 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY FRIDAY THEN LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY
- MAINLY DRY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
- PATTERN CHANGE COMING MID NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
- WINDY FRIDAY THEN LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY
OTHER THAN A FEW FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON, DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP LOWS WARMER
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL RAMP UP FRIDAY OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MICHIGAN. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
30 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED BY THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION. DESPITE THE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND INCREASING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, THERE ISN'T ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. THIS IS SHOWN IN ENSEMBLES AND SOUNDINGS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ADVANCING HIGH AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH. SNOW
LOOKS TO START SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND ENDING SATURDAY EVENING.
PROBABILITIES OF AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ARE CURRENTLY 30 TO 50
PERCENT SOUTH OF M-46.
- MAINLY DRY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A
SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES
AREAS SOUTH OF I-96 COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW. IT'LL BE ANOTHER
COLD DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S WITH WINDS FROM THE NORTH.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH MONDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S, BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION
KICKS IN MORE TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S. THERE ARE SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW (20 TO 30 PERCENT) TUESDAY.
CLUSTERS VARY ON WHEN PRECIPITATION MOVES IN WITH SOME SOLUTIONS
KEEPING MICHIGAN DRY UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING.
- PATTERN CHANGE COMING MID NEXT WEEK
WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS WE MOVE MORE INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW. CLUSTER ANALYSIS
SHOWS DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH AND
RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN MOVE
IN WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY (50 PERCENT OR GREATER).
PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN WITHIN 24 HOURS REMAINS
LOW (20 PERCENT).
AS FOR TEMPERATURES EXPECT A RETURN OF HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S
WITH LOWS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 20S, AND THEN 30S TO LOW 40S
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVE
BY OVERHEAD.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...04
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