898
FXUS63 KGRR 140746
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
346 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE HAZARDS WITH STORM SYSTEM SAT NIGHT TO EARLY TUE
- MODERATING TEMPS AND QUIET CONDITIONS MID-LATE NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
- MULTIPLE HAZARDS WITH STORM SYSTEM SAT NIGHT TO EARLY TUE
KEEPING WINTER STORM WATCH AS-IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH APX FOR LOWER
MICHIGAN, FOR NOW. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE, WHICH HASN'T
CHANGED MUCH SINCE YESTERDAY, WINTER HEADLINES FOR M-20/US-10
COUNTIES COULD END UP BEING CONVERTED TO ADVISORIES FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A BREAK DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THEN A NEW
CONFIGURATION OF WINTER HEADLINES CAN BE CONSIDERED, POSSIBLY SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR MIXED PRECIP IN WEST-CENTRAL LWR MI, THEN LIKELY DOWN THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE FOR LAKE-EFFECT SNOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, WIND ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED SUNDAY ON THE WARM
SIDE OF THE LOW, THEN MONDAY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE LOW. THE WIND
THREAT COULD ALSO BE BOOSTED LATE SUNDAY VIA THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY NIGHT: SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING NEAR
AND NORTH OF I-96, CHANGING TO SLEET OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEFORE
ENDING AROUND DAYBREAK. PER THE HREF, SNOW TOTALS AROUND 2 INCHES
ARE FAVORED NEAR PENTWATER TO MOUNT PLEASANT, WITH OVER 4 INCH
TOTALS POSSIBLE NORTH OF BALDWIN-CLARE. ESE WINDS COULD ALSO GET
BREEZY TOWARD THE END OF THE PRECIP AROUND DAYBREAK IN CENTRAL
MICHIGAN, WITH 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS.
SUNDAY: WARM FRONT ADVANCING TOWARD CENTRAL MICHIGAN FAVORS HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND 60S IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA. HREF MEAN
WIND GUSTS ARE 40 TO 55 MPH FROM THE SOUTH, FOR PLACES NEAR AND
SOUTH OF A MUSKEGON TO ALMA LINE, BEGINNING MID DAY. INCREASING
MOISTURE JUST ABOVE THE DIURNAL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER LATE IN THE DAY
ALONG WITH MODEST MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT WEAK CONVECTION
WITH SOME THUNDER ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE
EVENING. WHILE ANY POTENTIAL LINE OF FORCED STORMS MAY BE MOSTLY
SHEAR-PARALLEL, A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD AND PRE-MIXED
NEAR-SURFACE LAYER MEANS IT WON'T TAKE MUCH TO BRING DOWN SEVERE
WIND GUSTS OVER 58 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN NEAR AND NORTH
OF LUDINGTON-EVART, WHICH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN HOLDING ON TO.
HEAVY PRECIPITATION RATES OCCURRING AT THAT TIME LEADS TO LARGE
MODEL ICE ACCRETION RAW NUMBERS, BUT THE ACTUAL ICE ACCRETION SHOULD
BE LESS EFFICIENT. IN SHORT, SOME ICE IS POSSIBLE, BUT AN ICE STORM
ALONG US-10 APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
MONDAY: AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S ARRIVING AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INCREASINGLY IN SUPPORT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO
THE NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS COULD ALSO GUST 40-55 MPH, STRONGEST NEAR
THE LAKESHORE. 24-HOUR ACCUMULATIONS BY EARLY TUESDAY OF AROUND 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NW-WIND SNOW BELTS IN WEST MICHIGAN, AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL ADD TO THE TRAVEL CHALLENGES.
- MODERATING TEMPS AND QUIET CONDITIONS MID-LATE NEXT WEEK
(ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026)
ONCE THE LARGE LOW LIFTS NE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER TUESDAY, WE
WILL SEE CONDITIONS SETTLE DOWN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. ONE MORE
WAVE MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COLD ON TUESDAY WITH THE CORE OF THE LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR IN PLACE. WE THEN SEE UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD FROM THE
MAIN RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THE
NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA, AND THE UPPER
FLOW WILL COME FROM THE PACIFIC. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE COMING
FROM THE SW, HELPING TO ADVECT WARMER AIR OVER THE AREA FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 3,000 FEET WILL SCATTER OUT THIS
MORNING. VFR IS LIKELY DURING THE DAY. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE MIDDAY, THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST OR EAST SAT
EVENING. AFTER 03 Z SUN, LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF
MKG, GRR, AND LAN. MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY IS LIKELY GOING INTO THE
NIGHT ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF THAT LINE, AFFECTING CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
SUBSIDE, FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE DAY.
ANTICIPATING ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINNING LATE SAT NIGHT
FOR BREEZY EAST WINDS AND WAVES BUILDING OFFSHORE. SOUTH GALES ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SHORELINE ON SUNDAY (MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF
WHITEHALL). NORTH GALES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR BIG AND LITTLE SABLE
POINTS SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY ALONG THE WHOLE
NEARSHORE ON MONDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
MIZ037>040-043>045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ844>849.
DISCUSSION...CAS/NJJ
AVIATION...CAS
MARINE...CAS
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