881
FXUS63 KGRR 142359
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
759 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG SPRING STORM ON SUNDAY
- WINTER RETURNS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
- STRONG SPRING STORM ON SUNDAY
THE WINTER STORM WATCH WAS REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WHICH WILL INCLUDE ALL THE COUNTIES IN THE WATCH PLUS ISABELLA
COUNTY. SLICK ROADS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING FROM A BURST
OF SNOW FOLLOWED BY FREEZING RAIN ON SUNDAY MORNING.
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
I-94 CORRIDOR AND THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA FROM JACKSON TO
LANSING.
THE EXPECTED FORECAST PROGRESSION OF POTENTIALLY HIGH-IMPACT
WEATHER ELEMENTS THROUGH SUNDAY IS THUS: BANDS OF SNOW FROM WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE
WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN ON SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN RAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
CONTINUED MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BECOMES SURFACE BASED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT.
WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL GUST TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 45 MPH
AT TIMES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LINE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY EVENING WHICH WILL MOVE EAST AND BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS, ALTHOUGH THE THREAT MAY BE LIMITED
BY THE EXPECTED DIURNAL DECREASE OF INSTABILITY IN THE WARM
SECTOR. THE THREAT OF A QLCS TORNADO REMAINS LOW, BUT NOT ZERO AS
SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THAT TYPE OF CONVECTIVE MODE
THROUGH THE EVENING.
HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES. SEE THE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION SECTION.
- WINTER RETURNS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AN ARCTIC FRONT ERASES THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTENSIFYING THROUGH MONDAY
AS INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE AROUND 7 KFT AGL INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WE
WILL PROBABLY NEED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
DESPITE PRECIPITATION ON THE RADAR, NOT MUCH IS ACTUALLY REACHING
THE GROUND SO FAR TO THE SOUTH. AS THIS AREA BUILDS NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER A BIT, BUT
STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN VFR. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS (MKG/GRR/LAN) BUT SO FAR IS LOOKING PRETTY
UNDERWHELMING. THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME BRIEF
FREEZING RAIN TO MIX IN AFTER THE SNOW ENDS, WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME TRACE ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE, MAINLY AT GRR AND MKG, BUT THIS
IS FAR FROM A SURE BET. SUNDAY WILL SEE GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES SHIFT INTO THE AREA, BUT WILL ALSO BRING
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF WIND SHEAR AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED IN THE MID/LATE
EVENING TIMEFRAME SUNDAY EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
A TEMPORARY LULL IN THE WINDS AND WAVES TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY EARLY SUNDAY. WE ISSUED A GALE WARNING FROM
SUNDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY EVENING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
STRONG WINDS WHICH COULD INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY EVENING
AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND FREEZING SPRAY ON MONDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
RIVERS REMAIN HIGH AFTER SEVERAL RECENT ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN. WHILE
THE UPCOMING SUNDAY/MONDAY STORM LOOKS TO KEEP ITS HEAVIEST RAIN
NORTH OF OUR BIG WATERSHEDS, WE ARE STILL EXPECTING AROUND 1.5
INCHES OF RAIN NORTH OF I-96, INCLUDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MUSKEGON
RIVER WATERSHED.
CURRENT RIVER MODELING SUGGESTS THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SOME MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON THE LOWER PORTIONS (BELOW CROTON DAM) OF
THE MUSKEGON RIVER IN THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME. MEANWHILE, FURTHER
SOUTH, THE LOWER GRAND RIVER IS ALREADY NEAR BANKFULL, AND JUST
BEGINNING TO DROP AFTER RECENT HIGH WATER. AN EXPECTED ONE-HALF
INCH OF RAIN COMING UP WILL PROLONG THIS HIGH WATER, BUT IS
CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY NEW FLOODING. NEVERTHELESS,
SURPRISES HAPPEN, AND IF THE HEAVIER AXIS OF RAIN PIVOTS SOUTH
TOWARD THE KENT COUNTY AREA WE COULD GENERATE ADDITIONAL GENERAL
FLOODING AS WELL AS EVENTUAL RIVER FLOODING.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR MIZ037>040-043>046.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
MIZ059-066-067-071>074.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 10 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
DISCUSSION...OSTUNO
AVIATION...AMD
MARINE...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...AMD
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