286
FXUS63 KGRR 150623
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
223 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG SPRING STORM ON SUNDAY
- WINTER RETURNS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
- STRONG SPRING STORM ON SUNDAY
THE WINTER STORM WATCH WAS REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WHICH WILL INCLUDE ALL THE COUNTIES IN THE WATCH PLUS ISABELLA
COUNTY. SLICK ROADS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING FROM A BURST
OF SNOW FOLLOWED BY FREEZING RAIN ON SUNDAY MORNING.
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
I-94 CORRIDOR AND THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA FROM JACKSON TO
LANSING.
THE EXPECTED FORECAST PROGRESSION OF POTENTIALLY HIGH-IMPACT
WEATHER ELEMENTS THROUGH SUNDAY IS THUS: BANDS OF SNOW FROM WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE
WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN ON SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN RAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
CONTINUED MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BECOMES SURFACE BASED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT.
WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL GUST TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 45 MPH
AT TIMES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LINE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY EVENING WHICH WILL MOVE EAST AND BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS, ALTHOUGH THE THREAT MAY BE LIMITED
BY THE EXPECTED DIURNAL DECREASE OF INSTABILITY IN THE WARM
SECTOR. THE THREAT OF A QLCS TORNADO REMAINS LOW, BUT NOT ZERO AS
SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THAT TYPE OF CONVECTIVE MODE
THROUGH THE EVENING.
HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES. SEE THE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION SECTION.
- WINTER RETURNS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AN ARCTIC FRONT ERASES THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTENSIFYING THROUGH MONDAY
AS INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE AROUND 7 KFT AGL INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WE
WILL PROBABLY NEED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
IFR WITH SNOW IS OCCURRING NEAR LDM, RQB, AND MOP EARLY THIS
MORNING. FOR MKG, GRR, AND LAN, LIKELY VFR EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW REACHING THE GROUND (INSTEAD OF
EVAPORATING BELOW THE CLOUD), AND VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SUPPORT LIGHT ICE PELLETS PRIOR TO DAWN BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAKES
A BREAK. GUSTY WINDS AND LLWS WILL BE A PREVALENT CHALLENGE TODAY.
RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY THIS EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
THESE COULD TEMPORARILY BOOST WIND GUSTS OR FLUCTUATE THE AMOUNT
OF LLWS EITHER WAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
A TEMPORARY LULL IN THE WINDS AND WAVES TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY EARLY SUNDAY. WE ISSUED A GALE WARNING FROM
SUNDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY EVENING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
STRONG WINDS WHICH COULD INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY EVENING
AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND FREEZING SPRAY ON MONDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
RIVERS REMAIN HIGH AFTER SEVERAL RECENT ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN. WHILE
THE UPCOMING SUNDAY/MONDAY STORM LOOKS TO KEEP ITS HEAVIEST RAIN
NORTH OF OUR BIG WATERSHEDS, WE ARE STILL EXPECTING AROUND 1.5
INCHES OF RAIN NORTH OF I-96, INCLUDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MUSKEGON
RIVER WATERSHED.
CURRENT RIVER MODELING SUGGESTS THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SOME MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON THE LOWER PORTIONS (BELOW CROTON DAM) OF
THE MUSKEGON RIVER IN THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME. MEANWHILE, FURTHER
SOUTH, THE LOWER GRAND RIVER IS ALREADY NEAR BANKFULL, AND JUST
BEGINNING TO DROP AFTER RECENT HIGH WATER. AN EXPECTED ONE-HALF
INCH OF RAIN COMING UP WILL PROLONG THIS HIGH WATER, BUT IS
CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY NEW FLOODING. NEVERTHELESS,
SURPRISES HAPPEN, AND IF THE HEAVIER AXIS OF RAIN PIVOTS SOUTH
TOWARD THE KENT COUNTY AREA WE COULD GENERATE ADDITIONAL GENERAL
FLOODING AS WELL AS EVENTUAL RIVER FLOODING.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ037>040-043>046.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
FOR MIZ059-066-067-071>074.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LMZ844>849.
DISCUSSION...OSTUNO
AVIATION...CAS
MARINE...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...AMD
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