167
FXUS63 KGRR 160731
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
331 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLDER TODAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO TUESDAY MORNING
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
- COLDER TODAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO TUESDAY MORNING
SURFACE LOW AT 06Z EARLY THIS MORNING WAS LOCATED OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
LOWER MI. FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA IS RELATIVELY LIGHT OUT OF THE
EAST-NORTHEAST BUT THIS WILL CHANGE DRAMATICALLY AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MI WHILE CONTINUING TO DEEPEN, REACHING
THE NORTHERN LAKE HURON REGION BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
YIELD A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME WITH WIND ADVISORY (WI.Y) LEVEL
WINDS EXPECTED. HAVE ADDED OUR NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE WI.Y ... AND
MASON AND OCEANA COUNTIES IN PARTICULAR COULD SEE BORDERLINE WARNING
CRITERIA WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 60 MPH. THIS FORECAST OUTCOME IS
SHARED BY A RELATIVELY SMALL FRACTION OF THE MODEL SUITE, SO WILL
STICK WITH WI.Y AREAWIDE FOR NOW AND A POSSIBLE UPGRADE IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST CAN BE CONSIDERED LATER THIS MORNING.
AS NOTED PREVIOUSLY, COLD ADVECTION WILL BE STRONG, RESULTING IN A
TRANSITION TO LES BY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL WILL BE ESPECIALLY
IMPRESSIVE OVER OUR NORTHWEST CWA THANKS TO LAKE AGGREGATE
ENHANCEMENT. THIS, COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG GRADIENT
WINDS, COULD RESULT IN OCCASIONAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY
BY THE LAKESHORE.
STRONG, FAVORABLY ORIENTED WINDS WITH A MARGINALLY DEEP BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL ALLOW LES BANDS TO EASILY REACH THE US-131 CORRIDOR.
BLOWING SNOW MAY PERSIST FROM THIS AFTERNOON WELL INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, ALTHOUGH IT MAY BECOME A BIT MORE EPHEMERAL AND DEPENDENT
ON ACTUAL LES BAND EVOLUTION AND PLACEMENT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS EAST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
A COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO FOR AVIATION INTERESTS THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
STATE. THE LOW AT 06Z IS LOCATED IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN NEAR
BENTON HARBOR (BEH). WINDS AT THE TAF SITES ARE ALL FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION. AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTH THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AT MOST SITES AND
INCREASE IN SPEED. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 KNOTS BEFORE
DAYBREAK. WINDS AT MKG WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY THE SAME TIME.
COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO STATE AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND ANY
RAIN SHOWERS WILL SWITCH TO SNOW BY 12Z OR SO. WINDS MONDAY
MORNING AFTER 12Z WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 30+ KNOTS AT
ALL SITES WITH MKG POSSIBLY REACHING 40 KNOTS. IT IS AFTER THE 16Z
TO 18Z TIME FRAME WHEN WINDS MARKEDLY INCREASE. GUSTS WILL LIKELY
HIT THE 35 TO 45 KNOT RANGE AT MOST SITES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME
AND BECOME PREVALENT AFTER 12Z, ESPECIALLY AT MKG, AZO AND GRR.
CEILINGS WILL BE IFR AT MANY SITES MONDAY MORNING FROM IMPROVING
INTO THE MVFR RANGE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE WIND, SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW AND LOW CEILINGS, POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECT DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
HAVE UPGRADED OUR NORTHERN ZONES TO A STORM WARNING, WHICH ALIGNS
WITH THE OPEN WATER ZONES. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL BECOME AN
INCREASING CONCERN TODAY AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN. GALE CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED FROM GRAND HAVEN
SOUTHWARD.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ037-038-
043-044.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-038-043-
044-050-056-057.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ039-040-045-
046-051-052-058-059-064>067-071>074.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ039-
040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR MIZ050-056-064-071-072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR MIZ057-065.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>846.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ847>849.
DISCUSSION...TJT
AVIATION...DUKE
MARINE...TJT
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