656
FXUS63 KGRR 170558
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
158 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO TUESDAY
- LIGHT BURST OF SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
- WINDY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO TUESDAY
SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVES NORTHEAST AND OUT OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH A WEAKENING DEFORMATION AXIS AND AREA OF MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS SWINGING THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AUGMENTED BY
LAKE ENHANCEMENT. CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
WITH LAKE EFFECT BANDING BECOMING LESS CELLULAR AFTER SUNSET. LAKE
SUPERIOR CONNECTION AND INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 8 KFT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR FOR SOME HEAVIER BANDS WITH INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA OCCASIONALLY AFFECTING THE ADVISORY AREA.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST TUESDAY MORNING WITH HEIGHT
RISES AND SUBSIDENCE/DRYING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INVERSION
HEIGHTS PROGGED TO LOWER TO AROUND 4 KFT BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH
SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF AND ENDING.
- LIGHT BURST OF SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN AREA OF WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT COULD BRING
A QUICK BURST OF SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN AN INCH FOR ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING AND UNTREATED ROADS
MAY BE SLIPPERY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 158 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
MKG/AZO: THERE IS A 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF TEMPORARY IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAINLY BEFORE 09Z THIS MORNING. LOWER
CHANCES OF MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND
15Z.
GRR/LAN/BTL: GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF VISIBILITY AND
CEILING RESTRICTIONS REMAINING ABOVE FUEL-ALTERNATES THROUGH 00Z
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, A VERY BRIEF (15-30 MINUTES) PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE EXPERIENCED IF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS PASS OVER
THE TERMINALS.
JXN: 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF REMAINING ABOVE FUEL ALTERNATES THROUGH
THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH CEILINGS AROUND 3000 FT AGL SHOULD BE
PERSISTENT TODAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
NO CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES. WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS AT
MUSKEGON AT 2 PM AND WE EXPECT GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING FROM THERE TO LUDINGTON.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ037-038-
043.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ039-
044-045-050-056-057-064-065-071>073.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LMZ844>849.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LMZ844>849.
DISCUSSION...OSTUNO
AVIATION...TJT
MARINE...OSTUNO
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