097
FXUS63 KGRR 182358
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
758 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT-THU MORNING; RAIN POSSIBLE FRI
- WARMER SATURDAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SAT NIGHT-SUN
- DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
- MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT-THU MORNING; RAIN POSSIBLE FRI
THE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT WAS OBSERVED AT A FEW LOCATIONS
EARLIER HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED ACROSS THE AREA PER SFC OBSERVATIONS
ALL ABOVE 6 MILES, AND THE RADAR RETURNS FROM EARLIER HAVING MOVED
OUT. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PATCH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
MORE ECHOES ON THE RADAR TOWARD KMKG, HOWEVER IT SHOULD REMAIN MUCH
MORE ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON.
OUR FOCUS THEN QUICKLY TURNS TO A WAVE OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
THIS IS A COMPLICATED SETUP, WHICH HAS LED, AND STILL IS PROVIDING A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. WE HAVE A FRONT THAT IS DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE AREA, WHILE A SFC WAVE MOVING TO OUR SW IS INTERACTING
WITH THE FRONT.
THIS IS GOING TO LEAD TO A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION
FOCUSED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC WAVE. THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
PRECIPITATION IS LEADING TO A PORTION OF THE UNCERTAINTY. THE OTHER
PART OF THE UNCERTAINTY IS THE TIMING AND THEREFORE SFC TEMPERATURES
WITH REGARDS TO FREEZING OF WHEN THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES.
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR SOUTH OF THE I-96 CORRIDOR. THIS IS WHAT PROBABLY THE BEST
CONSENSUS IS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THERE ARE MODEL/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
THAT TAKE IT NORTH OF THERE, AND OTHERS THAT BRING LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION. THE OTHER LIKELY PART OF THIS SCENARIO IS THAT THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL COME IN BEFORE DAYBREAK THU. THIS INCREASES THE
CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS FREEZING RAIN.
ALL OF THIS SAID, THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
THE GOOD THING WITH THIS IS THAT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY MID-LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
END THE THREAT OF THE ICING IMPACTS FOR THE AREA, ALONG WITH THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT.
WE WILL SEE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, WITH THIS
ONE FURTHER NORTH THAN TODAY'S AND TONIGHT'S WAVES. WE WILL BE A BIT
WARMER WHEN THIS SYSTEM COMES THROUGH, AND THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
WITH THIS WILL BE FURTHER NORTH ALSO. THIS SHOULD NOT BE A BIG DEAL
WITH JUST SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN, HIGHEST TO THE NE.
- WARMER SATURDAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SAT NIGHT-SUN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HOLD ON SATURDAY, EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRIDAY
WAVE. THIS IS GOING TO GIVE MAX TEMPS FOR SATURDAY A HEAD START,
WITH MAX TEMPS TOPPING OUT AT LEAST IN THE 50S UP NORTH, AND 60S
DOWN SOUTH. IN FACT, THE FRONT THAT WILL BE COMING DOWN HAS SHOWED A
SLOWING TREND, AND WILL GIVE THE AREA A GOOD CHANCE OF A WARM SPRING
DAY, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WARM UP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL COME
BY AND PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ITSELF SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS THE FLOW AHEAD
OF IT WILL BE COMING FROM THE PLAINS. THIS MEANS THERE WILL BE
LITTLE TO MOISTURE INITIALLY AVAILABLE. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY POST
FRONTAL. INITIALLY MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION COULD BE RAIN AS ENOUGH
WARMER AIR LINGERS. WE COULD SEE IT TURN TO SOME SNOW POSSIBLY EARLY
SUNDAY AS ENOUGH COLD AIR MOVES IN.
- DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER WAVE ON SUNDAY, WE WILL SEE A FAIRLY
STRONG CANADIAN RIDGE MOVE IN FOR AT LEAST MONDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY
HAS CREPT IN WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES TRYING TO DROP IN AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY, AND MORE LIKELY WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPS
IN THE SEASONABLE RANGE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FZRA OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAIN
TIMEFRAME FOR CONCERN WILL BE 08Z UNTIL 14Z. AT THIS TIME HAVE THE
FREEZING RAIN IN PROB 30 GROUPS. IT SWEEPS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH COULD AFFECT ALL TAF SITES AT SOME POINT.
HOWEVER, PRECIP IS SPOTTY AND TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL.
MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THERE IS POTENTIALLY A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN
08Z TO 14Z FOR GRR, AZO AND BTL. ANY IFR SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY 15Z
AND MVFR WILL BE DONE BY 18Z. VFR WILL THEN DOMINATE THE PATTERN .
MARINE
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
WE WILL CANCEL THE SOUTHERN TWO MARINE ZONES A LITTLE EARLY WITH
THIS AFTERNOON'S PACKAGE. WINDS HAVE COME DOWN SUFFICIENTLY ALONG
THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE. NOW WE JUST HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE WAVES TO
FOLLOW SUIT IN THEIR TYPICAL LAGGING FASHION.
OUR NEXT MARINE HEADLINE WILL LIKELY BE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
NEEDED BEGINNING DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THAT
EVENT WILL BE A FLOW FROM THE SW ON THE FRONT END, AND THEN NW ON
THE BACK END.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
THIS FLOODING EVENT HAS JUST ABOUT PEAKED WITH THE FOUR SITES NEAR
OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE HAVING CRESTED. WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ADDITIONAL FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ846>849.
DISCUSSION...NJJ
AVIATION...CERU
MARINE...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
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