081
FXUS63 KGRR 200543
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
143 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN SHOWERS NORTH TONIGHT
- WARMUP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK, MOSTLY DRY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
- RAIN SHOWERS NORTH TONIGHT
A MID-LEVEL WAVE DRIVES A SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT,
WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD LIMITING THE AREAL EXTENT OF SHOWERS
TO AREAS NORTH OF M-46. THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FAVORS
CONDITIONS REMAINING WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS
RAIN. THIS IS REFLECTIVE OF THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE WHICH ALLOWS TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 30S BEFORE
SHOWERS BEGIN.
- WARMUP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL SUPPORT A WARMUP INTO HIGHS
IN THE 50S NORTH AND 60S SOUTH. THIS WILL BE DISRUPTED BY A MID-
LEVEL WAVE DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH GUIDANCE
VARIES ON WHEN EXACTLY THIS OCCURS. ROBUST MOISTURE DOESN'T ARRIVE
UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS WITH THE SLOWING OF THE FRONT SUGGEST
PRECIPITATION REMAINING RAIN FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF SUNDAY.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK, MOSTLY DRY
AS THE LOW/TROUGHING DEPARTS, MONDAY WILL SEE THE ADVANCEMENT OF
SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE REGION. THE FORECAST IS
GENERALLY FOR DRY CONDITIONS, HOWEVER LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
SHORTWAVES (WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT THIS FORECAST RANGE)
MAY DRIVE LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
40S TO LOW 50S, WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
KEY CHANGES:
- EXTENDED LLWS THROUGH LATE MORNING
- REMOVED MORNING MENTION OF MVFR CEILINGS
CONFIDENCE FOR STAYING OUT OF IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD
IS AROUND 90 PERCENT. IN FACT, THROUGH 00Z TONIGHT, WE ESTIMATE A
80-90 PERCENT CHANCE OF REMAINING VFR. CLOUD BASES SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN WELL ABOVE 10000 FT AGL. THIS IS MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN BEFORE,
WHEN WE ADVERTISED CEILINGS OF 2-3 KFT AGL DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY.
BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE, WE DECIDED TO KEEP LLWS UNTIL AROUND 16Z.
IT'S UNUSUAL TO CONTINUE LLWS WELL INTO THE DAYTIME LIKE THIS, UNLESS
THERE IS A STRONG WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY (WHICH IS NOT THE CASE
HERE). IT APPEARS THAT WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTINESS WILL INCREASE AS WE
GO THROUGH THE LATE MORNING; HOWEVER, THERE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH
SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL (WINDS VEERING CLOCKWISE WITH HEIGHT) SHEAR TO
KEEP LLWS GOING FOR A WHILE LONGER.
AS NOTED PREVIOUSLY, IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH 00Z. HOWEVER, THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT CEILINGS AROUND
2000 FT AGL COULD START AFFECTING TERMINALS NOT LONG AFTER THAT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 219 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
ONLY ONE SITE REMAINS AT OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AS OF THIS AFTERNOON.
THE GRAND RIVER AT COMSTOCK PARK IS NOW CRESTING AT MINOR FLOOD
STAGE. THE MAPLE RIVER AT MAPLE RAPIDS WENT BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE
THIS MORNING ALLOWING THE WARNING TO BE CANCELLED. WITH LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ADDITIONAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THOMAS
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...THOMAS
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