549
FXUS63 KGRR 201744
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
144 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING UP THIS WEEKEND, RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
- SEASONABLE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
- COMPLEX PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
- WARMING UP THIS WEEKEND, RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A
LIMITED SUPPLY OF COLD AIR PREVENTING MUCH OF A COOLDOWN. FLOW TURNS
SOUTHERLY INTO SATURDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING INTO THE TEENS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGING WILL KEEP THINGS DRY DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S NORTH AND 60S SOUTH.
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY SEES A COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFT
ACROSS THE AREA WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED BEHIND IT. A STRONG FRONT-
PARALLEL COMPONENT TO THE FLOW PATTERN WILL DELAY THE COLD AIR'S
ARRIVAL UNTIL THE PRECIPITATION IS EXITING THE AREA FAVORING
PRECIPITATION REMAINING RAIN THROUGH THE WHOLE PERIOD. HIGHS ONCE - WARMING UP THIS WEEKEND, RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
- SEASONABLE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
- COMPLEX PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEKAGAIN MAY REACH THE 60S ACROSS
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WHERE THE FRONT ARRIVES LATER. ACROSS CENTRAL
MICHIGAN, EARLIER FRONTAL ARRIVAL WILL LOOKS TO KEEP THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA'S HIGHS IN THE 40S.
- SEASONABLE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
RIDGING IS FAVORED TO RETURN MONDAY AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID-
LEVEL WAVE DEPART. THIS WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE CAVEAT HOWEVER IS THAT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES (WHICH ARE
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE PLACEMENT/TIMING OF AT THIS FORECAST
RANGE) MAY DRIVE LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S, WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
- COMPLEX PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK
CONFIDENCE DECREASES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE PLACEMENT AND
POSITIONING OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY. GIVEN THE PREVAILING TROUGHING PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY.
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE MORE UNCERTAIN. FOR EXAMPLE, 850MB TEMPS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS IF
FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION, AND THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS WITH THE
GFS. CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME CLEARER IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
LATEST IR LOOP SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT THE TERMINALS, BUT THAT WILL CHANGE THIS
EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS LOWER MI
RESULTING IN LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND SOME FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE
COULD SEE CIGS FALL BELOW 1K FT FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
HOWEVER, ONCE THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS, CIGS WILL
QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
THE GRAND RIVER AT COMSTOCK PARK CONTINUES TO FALL AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON, AND SHOULD FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THOMAS
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...THOMAS
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